Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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339 FXUS64 KSJT 120547 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1247 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the Permian Basin this afternoon, with this activity moving to the east- northeast toward western portions of our area. Additional showers and storms may develop through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, with the highest PoPs concentrated across the northwestern half of the area. Most storms will remain below severe levels due to marginal instability, but some large hail to the size of quarters will be possible with the strongest storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible under the stronger cells. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop overnight and into Sunday morning as another shortwave embedded in the southwest flow moves overhead. Again, a few of these storms could be on the strong side with large hail the primary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible. Rain chances will come to an end by Sunday evening as the shortwave moves off to the east. A few areas mainly across our eastern counties could pick up over an inch of rainfall but most areas will remain below an inch. Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s on Sunday, with the warmest temperatures across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Expect a mainly dry and warmer forecast for early this week as upper 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. The next upper level disturbance is due in by middle of this week and at the surface will see a dryline moving into our area by late Wednesday afternoon and a weak cool front/dryline intersection near the Northern Edwards Plateau by Thursday morning. Also, moderate/strong instability will be over much of the area with some vertical wind shear. As a result, expect a few rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday evening through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of severe weather season, so can not rule out a few severe storms. Also, northern and eastern areas are in a slight risk of excessive rainfall 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Going with mainly medium chances of rain. Look for dry and warmer weather Friday and next Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s possible Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR to MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR by daybreak across most terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be developing towards 9Z. Storms will continue in Abilene into the early afternoon, but end mid morning across the rest of the terminals. Ceilings at KABI hang on as IFR through the afternoon, but the rest of the terminals rise to MVFR/VFR early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 62 84 57 / 80 10 0 0 San Angelo 86 62 91 58 / 50 0 0 0 Junction 87 66 93 61 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 75 64 84 58 / 90 10 0 0 Sweetwater 79 61 85 58 / 60 10 0 0 Ozona 87 62 89 60 / 20 0 0 0 Brady 78 65 85 60 / 70 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...04