Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 161741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1241 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

A weak disturbance across Nebraska will drift southeast toward
the area today. This may produce modest lift which in combination
with daytime heating could support widely scattered/isolated
t-storms this afternoon despite the weak pressure gradient and
lack of sfc convergence. Any isolated storms will end with sunset
with dry and quiet weather expected overnight with any convection
expected to stay southwest of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Will keep a dry forecast for Thursday, as despite the lack of a
cap and instability present there appears to be enough subsidence
behind the wave moving off to the southeast to keep precip at bay
for the day. Highs remain above normal with low to middle 80s
expected. Slight chance for storms moves back into the western
counties late Thursday night / early Friday morning and through
the day Friday as a wave moves through the southwesterly flow
into the plains states and brings a little better directional
shear to the far western counties. Temperatures also rise a few
degrees into the middle/upper 80s for Friday and into Saturday. As
the western trof approaches into Saturday, additional chances for
storms come along with overnight warm advection, the warm front
lifting into the northern counties Saturday, and the main front
moving through from the northwest on Saturday afternoon. May get
a break from the rain on Sunday with some cooler more near normal
highs in the 70s, but the western trof is quick to redevelop and
pivots shortwave systems out of the southwest back over the front
across the central Plains. Generally an unsettled pattern, with
best chance for strong storms late Friday into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

For the 18Z forecast, afternoon cumulus clouds persist into the
early evening before low level lapse rates begin to cool. Can`t
rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorm for a brief time
primarily over the TOP/FOE sites. Tonight, there could be some
shallow fog form as the surface ridge will still be over the area.
Confidence in either situation mentioned is low, so therefore,
have not mentioned in TAFs.




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