Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 272024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Upper low continues to be centered over Utah while downstream a
ridge extended from Texas into the northern Plains. Cirrus was
spilling into central and eastern Kansas this afternoon. The ridge
will only move little through Memorial Day afternoon. Models are
suggesting that there may be some weak impulse that moves through
eastern Kansas in the afternoon on Memorial Day. Isolated convection
may be possible in the afternoon hours, but chances look to be
around 10 percent so will not mention at this time. If any storms
develop they will be high based and given inverted V sounding
profile would be capable of producing localized strong winds.
Temperatures will continue be be warm overnight with lows falling
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Tuesday will continue to
be in the lower to middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Upper ridge shifts eastward by Monday night as an expansive low
lifts into the four corners region. Lee troughing is induced off the
CO Rockies, enhancing the convergence along a dryline centered from
north to south over western KS. Convection is likely to form off of
the dryline close to 00Z. 0-6 KM shear vectors are not particularly
strong however show some orthogonal component towards central
Kansas. All guidance is hinting that towards an MCS cluster
developing before weakening in central Kansas on Tuesday morning.
Gusty winds would be the main hazards if this were to reach north
central areas. By the afternoon on Tuesday, weak inhibition along
with any residual outflow boundaries may initiate convection in the
afternoon with more likely chances in the evening hours as another
mcs complex tracks over central Kansas. All guidance is similar in
timing of this signal with the optimal upper level forcing centered
over Kansas during the overnight hours. Shear vectors orthogonal to
the mean low level flow suggest the potential for an MCS to maintain
its strength as it tracks into our area. Severe storms are possible
with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main hazards.

There may be a few lingering showers in eastern Kansas Wednesday
morning before subsidence fills in and dry conditions return. There
is a slight chance for additional storms to form along a frontal
boundary in southern Kansas. Weak upper dynamics though lead to
slight chances in the far southern CWA. A similar upper wave pattern
repeats as a shortwave ridge amplifies in the central conus as weak
embedded waves lift into western and central Kansas. There is a
slight chance one of these waves impacts north central Kansas in the
form of thunderstorms Saturday morning, otherwise a dry forecast is
more likely with highs staying above normal near 90 degrees.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds
southerly less than 10 kts.




LONG TERM...Prieto
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