Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 142048
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
348 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Water vapor loops indicate moisture accompanying a well-defined
deformation zone coiling around the western/southern semicircles of
a deep extratropical cyclone cover the central CONUS. Accompanying
bands of precipitation over north-central KS have exhibited a recent
eastward acceleration in tandem with the progression of the cyclone-
surrounding mid/high-level speed maximum. This activity will
continue spreading eastward across the forecast area into the
overnight hours, tapering off from west to east late tonight.

Meanwhile, a secondary cold front trailing southwest from the
western lobe of surface low pressure crossing the lower Missouri
Valley vicinity is progressing eastward across northeast/east-
central KS. Cold advection behind this boundary will continue to
facilitate the transition of the precipitation from drizzle and
light rain to snow, from west to east. The antecedent influx of dry
air aloft within the cyclone`s dry slot, and related areas of
lacking cloud ice, could perhaps continue to support a narrow
transition zone of freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain
spreading eastward. However, continued cooling/moistening aloft
should tend to greatly minimize the spatial/temporal scope and
magnitude of ice-accumulation potential. Otherwise, any additional
snow accumulations into tonight should be relatively light,
especially given the more-transient nature of precipitation areas.

Nevertheless, with the strong/gusty winds continuing into tonight
owing to the remnant tight pressure gradient, the potential for
blowing snow and associated reduced visibilities will persist. A
Winter Weather Advisory and a Wind Advisory remain in effect until 7
PM for western parts of the forecast area. Also, ample cold
advection tonight will allow for well-below-normal overnight lows --
in the lower/middle 20s. Record information is provided in the
Climate section.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The mid and long range forecast period will be characterized by
initial cold then a return to warm with a couple weather systems.
The first into mid week and then the next weekend.

Canadian high pressure continues to push into the region into the
day Sunday and Monday which should begin to clear the area of clouds
through the day Sunday as dry air works into the region and the
broad and deep upper trough pin wheels to the east over the Great
Lakes region. Winds will be gusty to begin the day with some
gradient influence still in play.  Could be quite cold overnight
Sunday with lows in the low 20s and possibly teens with radiational
cooling into Monday morning as winds begin to calm.  No headlines
due to the late growing season, but maintain awareness on outdoor
plants and other sensitive vegetation.

Middle part of the week, a high amplitude ridge builds over the
spine of the Rockies and translates east into the Tuesday time frame
helping heights to rise over the Central Plains and thus giving
temps a boost to near 80 once again.  Quickly behind is a mid level
negatively tilted trough lifting out of the Central and Northern
Rockies.  This should induce a deepening low out over northeastern
CO vicinity and WAA throughout the day should increase to aid in the
warm temps.  By the overnight period, the low advances into the
forecast area with associated cold front pushing through.  May be an
opportunity for some late night elevated storms, but currently look
to be in a well capped environment.  So, certainly more nocturnal
with the timing of the shortwave.  If there is enough saturation,
there could be some buoyant parcels that become lifted from the LFC,
but it`s a way out still.  Sufficient shear and some instability
progged for a short period suggest there could be storms by most
models with the GFS and ECMWF both indicating such a set up.   See
Fire weather section for details on Tuesday and Wednesday fire
weather.

Thursday to latter part of the week, the pattern continues with
upper ridging into the Thursday and Friday morning time frame before
the next potentially significant weather system advances into the
region by the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Northwest winds around 15-25 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt will continue
to spread eastward across the area this afternoon, in the wake of
a cold front. This front and accompanying wind shift will cross
TOP/FOE through 21Z. Areas of drizzle behind the front will
continue to change to light snow from west to east through early
evening, with areas of snow lingering into the overnight.
Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to affect the region into
Sunday morning. Localized IFR ceilings, and localized MVFR to
perhaps IFR visibilities, will also be possible. Areas of blowing
snow will contribute to localized visibility restrictions.
Present indications are that precipitation will be moving east of
the area Sunday morning, with VFR conditions becoming prevalent by
late morning. Strong northwest winds are expected to continue
into Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

For Tuesday and Wednesday, at least southwestern
portions of the area into central and east central areas could see
high to very high fire danger as winds on Tuesday become breezy out
of the south with gusts to around 30 mph and RH values fall to the
mid 20 percent range.  After the front passes over night into
Wednesday morning, will see winds become northwesterly gusting to 30-
35 mph over the area with minimum RH values again reaching to the
mid 20 percent range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Record temperature information for Saturday, April 14:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)  Record Lowest Maximum (Year)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Topeka         21F (1950)                    39F (1928)
Concordia      23F (1928)                    42F (1983)

Record temperature information for Sunday, April 15:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)   Record Lowest Maximum (Year)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Topeka         25F (1928)                     45F (1993)
Concordia      22F (2014)                     42F (1945)

Record temperature information for Monday, April 16:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)
--------------------------------------
Topeka         26F (1953)
Concordia      25F (1953)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>010-020>023-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cohen
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Cohen
FIRE WEATHER...Drake
CLIMATE...65



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