Area Forecast Discussion
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248
FXAK67 PAJK 231331
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
531 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM.../ Monday to Wednesday / Slow eastward moving
frontal band will continue to move through Southeast Alaska by
early Tuesday morning. A second weak trough is expected to move
into the northern half of the panhandle on Tuesday. Gusty winds
over the panhandle and gales for outer waters and into the
Clarence Strait for this morning will end as the front moves
further through the panhandle.

The next weather system will be moving in from the west southwest
and will spread into the Yakutat area Tuesday night. This front
right now is looking like it has max small craft winds of 30 kt
it but we will be watching to see if the system develops even
stronger.

Over the southeast gulf a narrow surface ridge is trying to edge
into the southern panhandle on Tuesday, This looks like it may
suppress any remaining shower activity, though not sure how much
clearing will result. If there is clearing during the evening,
the moist grounds and the breaks could lead to development of fog
for the southern half to third for Tuesday night. Right its just a
mention in the forecast as patchy for the southern section.

Pops got a minor increase today using the SREF and Hi Res, also
based on satellite and observations. Only needed small adjustments
for the winds. Favored solution today was the GFS and NAM for the
early part of the week.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/
Made minimal change to long range forecast as it still looked
reasonable. Did make a slight eastward adjustment to POPS for
Wed- Thu as models suggested the precip would get further E.
Remaining parameters were left as is.

Wed and Wed night still look wet over the NW half of the area with
front just offshore. Then as front pushes inland and weakens,
should dry out during Thu. There are some model differences on how
fast the precip diminishes Thu, so later shifts may need to
adjust that some.

Still looks like some ridging will take over for Fri into the
weekend, but models differ on how strong the ridge will be and
whether any systems will get into the area. Kept POPS on the low
side for now for that time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty winds with some LLWS this morning for areas
except for the Northern Lynn Canal area, and likely turbulence
from strong low level winds blowing across the rough terrain.
Widespread rain over the panhandle. Most stations visibilities
being reported in the rain are above 5 miles, but the cloud deck
is 1500 to 4000 feet. Think the clouds will stay near that through
the day.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ026>028.
     Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ021-022.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

$$

Bezenek/RWT

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