Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High pressure will move across the area today. Low pressure moves
east across the Carolinas tonight, then offshore early Sunday.
High pressure returns early next week.


Latest MSAS shows strong high pressure over the Great Lakes region
nosing down the ern seaboard. Meanwhile, low prs is centered in srn
Kansas with a warm front extending se into Miss/Ala. An elongated
area of overrunning pcpn noted north of this boundary from the Dakotas
all the way to nrn Georgia.

Forecast challenge today will be to determine just how far north
and east the pcpn will get as it moves into the drier air across
the Mid Atlantic region. Speaking of the drier air, went a bit lwr
than MOS wrt dew pointS over the piedmont given the orgins of the
cold high.

Latest suite of models support the dry air in the lower levels
winning out over most of the local area through 21Z. Tsctns show
moisture increases aloft, so expect any morning sunshine to fade
behind increasing cloudiness. Given some heating before the clouds
come in, temps rise into the upr 40s to lwr 50s.

Moisture quickly gets shunted se over the mts and across the swrn
portions of the Piedmont after 21Z. See enough support for some
light rain to developing across those areas after 21Z. Measurable
pcpn to be confined to the I85 corridor south of Dinwiddie county.


What looked like the potential for another winter event a few days
ago is now looking like a minimal event over my swrn zones as the
strong high to the north keeps most if not all pcpn south of I64.
Any accumulating snow mainly south of a FVX-AVC-RZZ line where pcpn
intensity will likely allow for a changeover to wet snow. Otw, it
looks to warm in the boundary layer for any accumls despite a
rain/snow mix. Pcpn begins to taper off and end north of VA ST
RT 58 by 09Z, so expect all accumls to end by then. No advisory
with this forecast package. Highest amounts arnd one inch across
wrn Mecklenburg county. Dry north of I64 tonight with pt to mstly
cldy skies. Lows in the upr 20s northern most zones to low to mid
30s across the south.

Lingering light pcpn (rain or a rain/snow mix) across srn tier zones
Sun morning with skies becoming pt sunny during the aftrn as high
pres to the north builds into the area. Secondary trof swings south
across the nern zones late, but don`e see any moisture other than
BKN cloud coverage. Brisk with gusty NW winds 15-25 mph along with
highs 45-50.

1040 mb high pressure across ern Canada will nose down the ern slopes
of the Applachians Sun night through Mon night. NE winds along with
periodic cloud coverage will continue the below normal temps. Dry with
lows both nights in the upr 20s nw to mid 30s se. Highs Mon in the mid
40s to lower 50s.


This period starts out cool with temperatures moderating mid-late
week. Ridge aloft and sfc hi pres will be aligned N-S invof E coast
Tue...then gradually weaken as deep layered SW flow develops from
the Plains states to the mid Atlantic region. Blendes GFS/ECMWF/WPC
through the period wrt timing return of cloudiness and increased
PoPs. Dry wx through Tue night/early Wed...then PoPs increase Wed
afternoon-Fri along w/ VRB clouds/mostly cloudy conditions.

Highs Tue in the m-u40s at the coast (w/ still a bit of a ENE
breeze). Lows Tue night from the m30s inland to around 40F at
the immediate coast. Highs Wed 50-55F at the coast to the l60s
inland. Lows Wed night ranging through the 40s. Highs Thu in the
m-u50s at the coast to the m-u60s in central VA to interior NE
NC. Highs Fri 55-60F at the coast to the l-m60s in central VA
and the u60s across interior srn VA-NE NC.


VFR conditions continue as high pressure to the north noses down
the ern seaboard today. SKC to start with high/mid level clouds
overspreading the region after 15Z. Moisture from the approaching
system to the west gets shunted south into the Carolinas after 00Z.
Thus, most of the pcpn will follow keeping AKQ TAF sites dry. The
exception will be at ECG where some light rain will develop toward
the end of the forecast period.

Low pressure tracks across the Carolinas Sat night then off the coast
Sun morning. This could produce flight restrictions with a mix of rain
and snow at PHF/ORF/ECG after 06Z. High pressure becomes anchored over
New England, with VFR conditions through the middle of next week.


Wind gusts to 20 knots will remain possible over the Bay early this
morning thus have allowed for the SCA to continue until 6 am.
Elsewhere, NW winds are generally 10 to 15 knots.

Expect a diminish trending in winds today as weak high pressure
moves across the region. Winds become generally light and variable
over the water by this afternoon with seas of 2 to 3 feet and waves
of 1 to 2 feet.

A weak area of low pressure approaches and passes south of the
region Saturday night. NE winds begin to increase late Saturday
night and reach 20 to 30 knots over the coastal waters Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning as the low deepens offshore. Model
guidance and wind probabilities indicate the potential for Gale
force gusts across the southern coastal waters, thus have issued a
Gale Watch Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the remainder of the
marine zones. Seas also build quickly Sunday, reaching 6 to 8 ft
north and 7 to 9 ft south by Monday.

These elevated conditions, especially in the form of elevated seas,
are expected to remain over the local waters through mid-week as the
low pressure lingers offshore.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for


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