Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 232115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
315 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Unsettled pattern continues through the short term forecast
period. Rain and snow showers in the west associated with a
shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft will diminish through
the evening.

Another shortwave and associated cold front are progged to move
through the region on Saturday bringing more rain and mountain
snow shower chances. Associated pressure falls over the area will
cause winds to increase across the western foothills Saturday
afternoon and evening. Winds do not appear to advisory strength
at this time, but will need to watch closely.

A brief period of clearing is expected behind the front Saturday
night, before upper level Pacific trof axis begins to shift across
the region Sunday. A strong piece of energy slides along the MT/WY
border Sunday through Monday. This is a pretty wet system and
should bring rain and snow across much of the region. Precip will
start as rain turn to snow overnight. At this time, QPF near half
is possible in extreme SE MT, and North Central WY. Much of the
precip in these appears to fall as snow overnight, with
possibility of Warning level snow totals. Have issued Winter Storm
Watch to cover primary warning and advisory areas. This system
will clear the area to the east Monday evening.

High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s again, but will be a
bit cooler than today. Highs in the 40s are expected again Sunday,
with 30s and 30s Monday. Low temperatures generally in the 20 can
be expected tonight through Monday night.

We will continue to monitor streams/rivers for ice jams and
potential lowland flooding. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Unsettled northwest flow will dominate the weather pattern
through the extended period. Models agree pretty well on the
general pattern, but many differences exist with regard to the

Shortwave ridging builds in to start the period Tuesday, bringing
a brief period of dry weather to the region. The ECMWF drops a
back door front into the region as early as Wednesday morning,
while the GFS favors a few weak shortwaves about the same
timetable before dropping the backdoor front into the region
approximately 18-24hrs later. Either way, it looks like at least
scattered rain and snow showers are possible through Thursday
night. The area appears to clear out early Friday morning for a
short time, but another backdoor front is progged into the region
some time Friday, with another shot of rain and snow across the

High temperatures should generally be in the 40s to lower 50s
Tuesday through Friday. Coolest days should be Wednesday and
Thursday. Low temps are expected to continue to be the 20s through
the period. AAG



Areas west of and including Billings will see partly cloudy skies
and VFR conditions with increasing winds along the foothills. East
of KBIL areas of fog and low clouds spreading west from KBHK with
IFR to LIFR conditions possible overnight. borsum


    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 029/049 028/044 027/044 026/048 032/045 029/046 029/048
    12/W    23/W    32/O    10/U    33/W    32/B    22/W
LVM 031/048 024/044 022/043 023/049 032/048 029/049 031/052
    24/W    23/W    41/B    12/W    44/W    32/N    22/W
HDN 023/047 024/043 024/043 021/047 029/045 026/046 025/047
    02/W    23/W    43/O    10/U    44/W    32/E    22/W
MLS 024/045 025/043 026/041 023/044 029/041 025/041 024/042
    02/W    32/W    34/O    10/U    32/E    22/B    23/W
4BQ 023/048 025/043 025/039 019/043 028/042 023/042 024/045
    01/N    23/W    67/O    10/U    33/W    22/B    23/W
BHK 023/042 027/041 025/037 020/041 026/039 022/038 021/039
    11/N    31/B    46/O    10/U    32/N    23/B    33/W
SHR 026/057 028/045 026/039 019/045 027/045 026/045 025/049
    01/B    24/W    66/O    10/U    34/W    32/B    22/B


MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Monday afternoon FOR ZONES 32-33-36>38-58.
WY...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Monday afternoon FOR ZONES 98-99.


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