Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 280611 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
111 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion


06Z TAF discussion:
Overall expect mostly VFR conditions across most TAF sites through
the next 24 hours, except in the eastern TAF sites near GTR, MEI
and HBG, where some lower MVFR ceilings are possible. Some
showers/VCSH will develop by mid-morning around 28/15-16Z with
some storms/VCTS developing around 28/17-19Z and spreading
westward on the outskirts of Alberto`s circulation. Expect most of
the earliest storms to come in the vicinity of the eastern TAF
sites. Some brief drops to lower flight categories are possible
with any heavy downpour/storm, before diminishing after sunset.
Some gusty north-northeast winds around 17-20kts are possible
before weakening into the evening. /DC/



Evening update discussion:

The combination of 1000+ J/kg of working CAPE on the periphery of
Alberto (centered in the eastern Gulf of Mexico) is keeping some
shower and thunderstorm activity going this evening from north AL
southwest-ward into the Arklamiss Delta. There is some convergence
in this band helping lift, but the equally-needed ingredient is
instability - which will be waning as the night progresses.
Updated the forecast for this evening to better capture this
mentioned activity through midnight or so. By late tonight some
showers, and perhaps a stray storm, better associated with solid
moisture advection on the NW side of Alberto should start coming
across the state line into eastern MS. No hazardous weather is
anticipated through the night in any areas, although some heavy
downpours are not out of the question through midnight in the
Golden Triangle and portions of the Arklamiss Delta.

Expecting the increased convergence and moisture transport
wrapping around the backside of Alberto to result in a much higher
convective coverage (in comparison to today) over most of the
region by midday to afternoon tomorrow as instability increases.
Most of the morning should be decent in a majority of areas,
hopefully. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Memorial Day: Eyes over the next few hours will
continue to be on Subtropical Storm Alberto as it approaches the
Northern Gulf Of Mexico. Confidence has continued to grow that the
storm will track east of the ArklaMiss, with a landfall likely
somewhere along the Panhandle of Florida. This places our region
on the favorable, east side of the system. With that said, our
latest forecast has continued to trend drier. This led to the
removal of the limited flood risk in the HWO. We could see showers
associated with the moisture from Alberto begin to move into East
Mississippi late tonight well before the storm makes landfall on
Monday. These showers will be light to moderate. The best chance
for heavy rainfall during the short term period will be throughout
the day on Monday as the storm nears the Gulf Coast and preceding
bands of precip impact the SE portion of the CWA. Rain rates
aren`t expected to be high enough to cause any flooding issues on
Monday. Highs through the region will vary about 10 degrees with
areas west of the MS River reaching the low 90`s and areas in the
Pinebelt remaining in the low to mid 80`s due to cloud cover and
precip. /jpm3/

Monday night through Saturday: Subtropical storm Alberto is
expected to be moving north through Alabama and weakening into a
Depression Monday night and Tuesday. Remaining on the west side of
the storm it now appears impacts will be less than previously
anticipated. Gusty winds less than 20mph and between one and two
inches of rain are possible mainly over our northeast zones Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. As Alberto lifts northeast of our CWA
Wednesday mid level ridging will begin strengthening from the
southwest. This ridging looks to continue building through the end
of the week however, the ECMWF is more robust and drier over our
CWA than the GFS and Canadian. The GFS and Canadian suggest a
couple disturbances topping the ridge and tracking southeast
across the northern and east portions of our CWA with associated
convection each day. The ECMWF is drier and results in a warming
trend in combination with high humidity leading to heat index
concerns by Friday and continuing Saturday. For now, have allowed
for convection our north and east which will result in slightly
cooler afternoon highs in the north and east. Afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 90s look likely in the west and south. /22/


Jackson       85  70  88  71 /  48  27  56  33
Meridian      83  69  85  70 /  71  61  64  43
Vicksburg     90  70  90  71 /  43  17  38  18
Hattiesburg   83  70  89  71 /  73  54  58  43
Natchez       88  70  89  72 /  47  15  28  13
Greenville    89  71  88  71 /  32  15  46  22
Greenwood     87  70  86  70 /  43  24  59  40





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