Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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197
FXUS65 KLKN 200011
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
511 PM PDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The storm system that brought rain and snow to the
region will move out of the area tonight with dry and warmer
weather returning Friday through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated thunderstorms are lingering into the late
afternoon hours. Have updated the forecast to include TS wording
through 8PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 320 PM /

SYNOPSIS...The storm system that brought rain and snow to the
region will move out of the area tonight with dry and warmer
weather returning Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Upper low centered over
south-central NV this afternoon will continue its trek eastward
tonight with rain/snow showers ending from west to east across
central NV this evening. Some minor snowfall accumulations across
the higher passes and summits of central NV this evening. Strong
gusty post-frontal northwest winds will continue across northwest
Nye county this evening where a wind advisory remains in effect
until 11 pm. Northwest winds will begin to pick up across far
southeastern Elko county later this evening so a Wind Advisory
will continue for that area from 11 pm this evening to 11 am
Friday. Upper ridge building into the region on Friday for dry
and warmer weather with high temps climbing into the mid 60s to
the mid 70s by Sunday. A weak short wave trough moving into
northwest NV Sunday afternoon will provide enough moisture and
instability for the possibility of some isolated thunderstorms
over far northern NV in the afternoon.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday. Confidence has
increased for the system Sunday into Monday morning. The
deterministic GFS/EURO has improved vastly compared to last night
and ensemble spread is very low for both forecast models.
Therefore, substantially raised POPs for the mtns and modestly
raised pops for the valley locations. This is a quick hitting
open wave with many locations receiving less than one tenth of an
inch of precip. Snow levels are very high and only light
accumulations of snow are expected on the highest of peaks in
northern NV. Most of the precip will be confined to north of I80.

After that, the forecast remains tricky. Deterministic models are
a mess and both ensembles show large spread in 500mb heights.
Given this information, decided to keep the PoPs very low for the
time being until a better consensus comes about.

During the extended, daytime highs will be in the 60s/70s and
overnight lows will be in the 30s/40s. This is above average for
this time of the year.

AVIATION...Rain/snow will be slow to exit the region this
evening and overnight. Expecting all terminals to be clear of
snow by Friday morning with ELY being the last to clear out.
Winds remain strong at TPH and will continue through the early
evening before diminishing. Expect gusts of 45-50 mph. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected with the exception of ELY, which could see
brief MVFR conditions with the heaviest snow bands overnight.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northwestern Nye
County.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for
Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

96



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