Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
945 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High pressure will build in from the northwest through tonight
then move offshore Saturday. Low pressure will cross south of
the area Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the
north later Sunday through early next week as low pressure moves
well offshore.


As of 945 AM Fri...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update. High pres will cont to build in from the
NW with very dry air over region. Expect mainly sunny skies and
temps running about 10 dgr below normal with highs around 50 NE
to mid/upr 50s SW.


As of 250 AM Fri...Skies shld remain mainly clr thru good part
of the night with some increase in high clouds late inland ahead
of next system. Winds shld diminish again inland and with good
radiational cooling will once again see lows in the 30s with
near 30 cooler spots. Will be close to freezing for the inland
parts of Onslow/Carteret and may need another headline for
frost/freeze...later shifts can add if needed.


As of 330 AM Friday...
Saturday through Sunday...A complex forecast this weekend and
two systems phase across the region. A southern stream shortwave
and sfc low pressure across the central Plains approaches from
the west while a northern stream shortwave digs south across the
mid-Atlantic with cold Canadian high pressure building in from
the north.

Moisture continues to increase through the day Saturday as the
low pressure area approaches from the west. Some timing
differences continue in the models as to when precip will start
with the GFS continuing to be faster, indicating late morning,
though most hold off mid to late afternoon as it will take some
time to moisten the column. The best chance for precip occurs
Saturday night when isentropic lift and moisture are maximized.
The low will weaken as it approaches the area as it encounters
the high wedging into the region but then redevelops off the
coast as it encounters good baroclinicity invof the Gulf Stream.
Precip amounts have increased some with generally a quarter to
three quarters of an inch possible. Models continue to suggest
the potential for wintry precip along and north of where the 850
mb through is progged to be, which is mainly across the
northern tier, and have added rain or snow to the grids north of
the Pamlico River. Not including any accumulation at this time
as sfc temps will be above freezing but if precip rates are high
enough could see minor accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces.
Temps continue below normal this period with highs Saturday in
the mid 40s NE coastal sections to mid 50s south. Lows Saturday
night expected in the mid 30s to around 40 and continued cool
Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s most areas with lower
50s possible southern sections.

Monday through Thursday...A blocking pattern develops early to
mid week as the upper trough lifts out early next week and
becomes a vertically stacked low across the NW Atlantic while
longwave ridging builds along the eastern seaboard. The upper
ridge will maintain dry conditions while sfc high pressure
continued to wedge in from the north keeping cool temps to the
area Monday. The high weakens as we move into mid-week with the
airmass gradually modifying, however how quickly it modifies
will depend on the position and track of the cut-off low off the
coast. Models are still not in good agreement with the movement
of the upper low with the ECMWF still farther south and closer
to the coast bringing us prolonged northerly winds across the
region and cooler temps into mid week while the GFS is farther
offshore allowing the high to push south faster bringing greater
warming as we move into mid week. Could see temps into the
upper 60s/lower 70s as early as Wednesday and mid to upper 70s
Thursday if the GFS verifies, while the ECMWF is about 10
degrees cooler during the mid-week period.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 620 AM Fri...High confidence for VFR thru period. High
pres will grad build in from the NW with dry NW sfc flow. Skies
will remain mainly clr thru much of the period with poss some
increase in high clouds later tonight in advance of the next
system. The NW winds may gust 15 to 20 kts at times mid day.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...VFR conditions will prevail Saturday with
sfc high pressure in place though will see lowering cigs through
the day and moisture increased from an approaching storm system.
A weak low pressure area will move across the area Saturday
night and expect IFR or below much of the overnight. The low
pressure area pulls away from the area Sunday but lingering low
level moisture may continue to bring sub-VFR conditions into
Sunday. Expect pred VFR Sunday night through Tuesday.


Short Term /Today and tonight/...
As of 945 AM Fri...Latest obs show N/NW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest north of Ocracoke...with seas 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke
and 2-4 ft south. SCA continues north of Ocracoke through late
this afternoon for lingering elevated seas.

High pres will cont to build in from the NW thru the period
with NW winds mainly 10 to 20 kts. Models shows strongest winds
with a few gusts to 25 kt thru this morn with some decrease
later today then winds may pick up to 15 to 20 kt again tonight.
Seas shld then avg 3 to 5 feet central and N to 2 to 4 feet S
late today and tonight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...High pressure weakens over the waters
Saturday while a weak area of low pressure approaches from the
west and passes south of the area Saturday night. N winds around
10-15 kt Saturday morning diminish to 10 kt or less and veer to
E/NE Saturday afternoon and evening. Seas around 3-5 ft north
and 1-3 ft south Saturday morning diminish to 1-3 ft throughout
Saturday night.

NE winds begin to increase after midnight Saturday night as low
pressure low deepens off the coast as it moves away from the
area and reach 20-30 kt Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Meso models are on the stronger side of the models and indicate
a period of Gale Force winds possible, mainly coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and perhaps portions of the Pamlico Sound.
Seas build quickly Sunday as low pressure deepens off the
coast, reaching around 7-10 ft north and 5-9 ft south by

The low pressure system stalls across the NW Atlantic as we move
into mid week and there is a lot of uncertainty how far offshore
this low will be and ultimately the wind direction and speeds
across the coastal waters. Will continue to advertise N/NE winds
around 10-20 kt Tuesday but if the low pulls farther offshore
winds may weaken through the afternoon. The low will continue to
bring large swells into the coastal waters and seas will
potentially be around 8-12 ft or higher across the northern
waters and 4-8 ft southern waters into mid-week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-


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