Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 171308
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Holly Shelter...NCWRC
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
908 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will linger offshore Friday through this weekend
and well into next week. Warmer and an increasingly more humid
airmass will evolve with time along with little to no rainfall
through the middle of next week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is None.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 13 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 7 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......101889 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............78.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  25  30  34  38  28  18  8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............78  81  83  85  85  85  84  83
RH..............67  60  56  53  51  51  53  56
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..7   8   10  11  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.10  10  12  13  14  14  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.1
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.18  18  17  16  16  17  18  21
Haines Index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..68  95  90  85  79  91  102 86
Stability.......C   C   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............66  78  54  51  48  54  60  59
Aparnt Tmp (F)..78  83  85  86  87  87  86  85
Sfc pres (in)...998 998 998 998 993 993 993 993

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 26 mph decreasing to 9 to 12
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Min Vent Rate.......2185 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............6.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8   8   8   9   9   9   10  10  11  10  10  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  79  77  76  74  74  73  72  72  71  71  71
RH..............60  65  69  73  76  79  81  82  83  84  85  85
CHC Pcpn (%)....10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  11  10  9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  12  11  10  10  10  10  8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.24  26  20  12  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
Haines Index....4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..73  53  20  10  7   5   4   3   2   2   2   2
Stability.......D   D   D   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
LVORI...........1   1   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
ADI.............57  35  18  8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Aparnt Tmp (F)..83  81  77  76  74  74  73  72  72  71  71  71
Sfc pres (in)...993 993 993 993 993 993 993 993 995 995 995 995

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 7 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 9 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......29439 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............31.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     12     10     8      8      8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............71     74     80     86     88     88
RH..............85     79     64     54     50     52
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     10     10     10     10     10
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7   S 7    S 7
20 ft wind gust.8      8      10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1800   3200   4400   4700
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 9   NW 8   NW 6   NW 2   SW 5
Haines Index....4      3      3      3      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..2      2      15     19     12     23
Stability.......E      C      C      C      C      C
LVORI...........5      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.............6      7      19     20     11     20
Aparnt Tmp (F)..71     74     83     89     91     91
Sfc pres (in)...29.95  30.00  30.00  30.00  29.99  29.99

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...Casey Phillips
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909391.1/ILM
.DELDT 05/17/19
.EMAIL casey.phillips@ncwildlife.org


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