Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 190929
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Grassy Pond Comp 261...USFS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
529 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Calm winds early this morning will become southeasterly
near 5 mph through mid day. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop in the vicinity of the burn area after 2 PM, then
increasing in coverage from 3 to 8 PM along the sea breeze boundary
collision. Frequent lightning strikes will occur in thunderstorms,
along with gusty and erratic winds. Light surface and transport
winds will produce poor to fair dispersion today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
                    the morning, then becoming light in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 4200-5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 6 mph.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 24 late in the morning, decreasing
                    to 17 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  35  35  39  39  39  60  60  60  60
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3
Temp............78  82  85  89  90  92  93  92  91  90
RH..............94  82  75  66  62  58  54  56  58  60
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   2   3   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.1   2   5   6   6   5   5   3   3   3
Dispersion idx..0   5   14  25  28  25  24  21  19  17
LVORI...........7   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......1600-2900 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL early
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 3 mph.
Dispersion index....9 decreasing to 1 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 7 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........60     57     57     57     34     34
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............87     83     80     78     76     75
RH..............65     77     82     85     90     94
20 ft wind......S 3    SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   S 2    S 1
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 3    SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   S 2    S 1
Dispersion idx..12     1      1      1      1      1
LVORI...........3      4      6      6      7      7

$$
Forecaster...Smith
Requested by...Timothy Woody
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1912415.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/19/19
.EMAIL timothy.woody2@usda.gov


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