Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FNCA72 TJSJ 031851
FWSSJU

Spot Forecast for Toa Baja Fire...OMME Toa Baja
National Weather Service SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST Wed Jul 3 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 AST on July 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Questions or concerns about this forecast, contact (787) 253-4501.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected through
the forecast period under a moderate to locally fresh easterly
wind flow peaking around 15 mph with higher gusts. Showers, if
any, can be expected during the overnight and early morning hours.
Conditions for smoke dispersal are good during the daytime hours,
but poor to fair during the overnight hours as the winds and
mixing heights decrease.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds around 14 mph.
Mixing height.......2900-4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (43900 knot-ft).
Dispersion..........6.

TIME (AST)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........30  30  30
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1
TEMP............89  88  86
RH..............59  61  64
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..13  13  13
20 FT WIND GUST.17  17  16
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 3.5 2.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..E   E   E
MIXNG WIND SPD..15  17  17
DISPERSION......6   6   6
VRATE KT-FT/100053  51  44

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......100-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (500-27500 knot-ft).
Dispersion..........6.

TIME (AST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60  60  60
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............84  82  81  80  79  78  78  77  77  76  76  78
RH..............70  74  77  80  83  86  89  92  94  95  94  87
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..11  10  8   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.14  13  10  10  10  10  8   8   7   7       7
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
MIXNG WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
MIXNG WIND SPD..16  14  12  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8   8
DISPERSION......6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
VRATE KT-FT/100028  12  3   1   1   2   3   3   3   1   1   1

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 7 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3900-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5700-53600 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (65900 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Dispersion..........6.

TIME (AST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........21  21  21  21  21  21  40  40  40  40  40  40
WEATHER COV.....                        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............81  83  85  87  89  90  91  91  91  90  89  87
RH..............81  76  72  67  64  62  60  58  57  58  60  65
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   8   9   10  12  13  14  15  15  15  15  15
20 FT WIND GUST.7   10  10  14  14  17  18  18  18  19  18  18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.7 3.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
MIXNG WIND SPD..9   10  13  14  14  15  16  17  18  20  21  21
DISPERSION......6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
VRATE KT-FT/10006   14  26  40  54  66  76  83  86  88  83  71

$$
Forecaster...Colon
Requested by...Luis Rivera
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1911733.0/SJU
.DELDT 07/03/19
.EMAIL lrivera@toabaja.com


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