000
FXUS61 KBTV 251104
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
704 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be dry and sunny, but cooler than normal. Another
cold night can be expected tonight before a warming trend
starts Friday. Rain chances return Saturday evening through next
week with hit or miss, off and on showers next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 701 AM EDT Thursday...Winds quieted down across the region
overnight, and we saw somewhat stronger radiational cooling that
pushed perennial cold spot Saranac Lake all the way down to 12
F. It appears Plattsburgh, NY fell to 23 and tied its previous
record as well as quickly tying yesterday`s record just before
the midnight hour struck. With dry air present and plenty of
sunshine, we should start to see temperatures quickly climb back
up. Previous discussion below...

Sunny with high pressure. Temperatures reach mid 40s to lower
50s today under light northwest flow, and moderate tomorrow to
around 60 with stagnant flow. Morning weather for today and
tomorrow will be comparable with 20s to locally teens across
cold hollows and near 30 by Lake Champlain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 303 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridging builds in from the west
overnight Friday out ahead of a deamplifying shortwave trough. In a
nutshell, this period features quiet weather. Overnight lows on
Friday night are somewhat tricky to forecast, as it depends on how
quickly the thicker clouds move in and southerly or southwesterly
flow kicks in. For now, have leaned on the colder side of guidance
particularly for the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and east of
the Green Mountains. A plausible scenario is for temperatures to
fall quickly after sundown especially considering the likely dry
boundary layer air mass and then stabilize or rise a few degrees
during the latter half of the overnight hours.

Heading into Saturday, while it would not be quite a blue bird day
like Friday, there should still be partly sunny skies during the
morning hours, trending mostly cloudy or overcast by mid day into
the early afternoon hours. The best chance for isolated to scattered
rain showers is across northern NY, with rain looking to hold off
until sundown for Vermont. Overall, Saturday should be a rather
pleasant late April day with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. These
are quite close to climatological values for this time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EDT Thursday...Deamplifying shortwave trough embedded
within a larger area of upper ridging crosses our CWA overnight
Saturday, pushing a warm front through and giving us a few
hundredths to locally quarter inch of rain. It does look like the
bulk of the rain should fall during the overnight hours, with the
rain becoming more showery and scattered in nature during the day on
Sunday. It is worth noting that dew points on Sunday will rise into
the 50s, especially across northern NY. With a bit of sunshine,
temperatures would easily rise into the upper 60s or low 70s. This
would result in a few hundred joules of CAPE, so a few rumbles of
thunder are not out of the question for our western zones. While
there would be rain drops to dodge on Sunday, it would not be a
washout either. The uptick in humidity and possible rumbles of
thunder would serve as a reminder that summer is not too far away.

Beyond Sunday, forecast uncertainty increases as we approach Day 5
to 7 of the forecast period. So have largely stuck to blended
guidance for that time frame. Upper ridging builds in even stronger
to start the new work week so highs in the mid to upper 70s are in
play for Monday and even Tuesday, depending on how quickly a cold
front moves out of the Great Lakes region. And depending on the
timing of that cold front, it will impact our temperature and
thunderstorm forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Very quiet surface conditions expected
with clear skies and no fog. Light and variable winds will
become 5 to 9 knots by about 14z with some terrain influence on
direction, but still mainly north to northwest. After 00z,
winds trend light and terrain driven.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

April 26:
KMPV: 22/1967
KPBG: 23/1972

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 29:
KBTV: 55/2013
KPBG: 57/1974

April 30:
KPBG: 54/2004

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...WFO BTV