517
FXUS64 KEWX 161717
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1217 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A passing mid-level disturbance had initiated a few thunderstorms in
the far northeastern portion of the area late last night. Those have
since moved off to the northeast with dry weather seen across the
area area early this morning. Southeasterly flow from the surface to
around 850 mb is bringing increased low level moisture over South
Central Texas, evident this morning as low stratus begins to build
over the area. A warm front will be lifting north this morning
across the CWA bringing increased chances for elevated showers and
thunderstorms to most of the area.

This warm front, in addition to a dryline to the west and surface
low over West Central Texas, will play a role in thunderstorm
development this afternoon aided by a passing upper trough. This
leaves a messy convective pattern which could also be influenced by
outflow boundaries from expected morning storms north of the area.
Further destabilization in the afternoon over South Central Texas
could bring some discrete storm development mainly over the Hill
Country and northern I-35 corridor or coastal plains in the vicinity
of the warm front. Storms would likely become supercellular with
this activity with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. A
few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given veering winds with height
indicated by soundings. The greatest potential for these severe
storms is in the level 3 of 5 risk introduced by SPC mainly along
and north of a Johnson City to Lockhart to Schulenburg line. The
severe risk remains, but is slightly lesser, in areas further south
and west with a level 1-2 risk outlooked. The exception is for
counties along the Rio Grande where storms are not anticipated.
Cannot rule out a few storms also forming ahead of the dryline over
the southern Edwards Plateau in the afternoon as well.

In addition to the severe risk, high PWAT values across the area
will bring the threat of heavy rain with any storm or line of
storms. The greatest potential for heavy rain will be in the
northeastern portion of the area. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches with
locally higher amounts is possible in this location. Lesser amounts
are expected further south and west with some areas expected to miss
out on totals more than a few hundredths. Storms should progress
east to southeast in the evening with generally drier conditions
overnight. The front advances east overnight and some lingering
showers and isolated storms will be possible Friday morning and
afternoon mainly over the Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Friday night an upper level ridge will begin moving in from the west
starting an extended dry period. This ridge will slowly move across
TX over the weekend and strengthen during the beginning of next week.
The low level flow will become southeasterly Sunday and stay that way
through the end of the period. This will lead to warming
temperatures. Highs will reach the 90s to 105 by Saturday. The
central part of the area may warm a few degrees more Monday and
Tuesday. Record highs may be possible along the Rio Grande and we may
see our first 100 degree day in the central part of the CWA. We may
need to issue some heat products early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An MVFR cloud deck is in place across much of south-central Texas to
begin the period, and bases are expected to gradually improve through
the afternoon. On the other hand, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will also be increasing, especially for AUS, as we get
further into the afternoon. Precipitation should push east of the
area this evening, though another lower confidence round is possible
through the early morning hours Friday. For now, we have not included
this in the TAFs. Otherwise, cigs will lower again overnight with
some vis reductions possible as well before gradually improving again
through the day tomorrow. A weak frontal boundary moving into the
area will also result in generally light, and at times, variable
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  69  86  68 /  80  30  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  68  85  67 /  80  30  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  70  88  67 /  70  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            80  66  84  65 /  80  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  67  84  66 /  80  30  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             90  68  94  68 /  40  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  68  87  66 /  70  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  71  85  69 /  80  50  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  70  90  70 /  60  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           90  72  91  70 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Gale