Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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983 FXUS64 KEWX 150827 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Clear skies over South Central Texas will allow for some mild to cool morning lows across the area. High level clouds will increase over the area today along with some patchy low level cumulus. Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the far northeast portion of the CWA and over the Hill Country to the upper 90s along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are expected today with the one exception in the far west where a few storms may form over the higher terrain in Mexico in the afternoon and cross the Rio Grande. Confidence if thunderstorms make it into our western reaches is still uncertain given only moderate mid level flow, but modest instability and bulk shear around 50 knots would support severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats if they do. SPC has highlighted this potential with a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Mainly dry conditions are expected overnight with continued southerly flow. Lows will be warmer than those of this morning as stratus is expected to develop Thursday morning over the majority of the area. An upper trough will be located over the far southwestern CONUS Thursday morning, expected to move east towards the Southern and Central Plains during the day. At the surface, a few boundaries will exist near or over the area with a dryline to the far west, a weak cold front to the north and a warm front expected to move north towards South Central Texas on Thursday. Precipitation chances begin as early as Thursday morning across much of the area with mainly isolated or scattered shower activity possible during that time. Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon as temperatures rise with initiation most likely over Hill Country, northern I-35 corridor or Coastal Plains north of I-10 and north of the warm front. Any storms could become supercellular with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. SPC continues the level 2 of 5 risk generally north of I-10 with a level 1 of 5 risk almost everywhere else except along the Rio Grande. Additionally, there is still the potential for heavy rainfall as this system moves through with a level 2 of 4 for excessive rain also north of I-10. Given the surface features, except the bulk of any activity to be over the northeastern portion of the CWA and areas northward. South of this, it is possible little will be seen in the way of thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Convection will continue Thursday evening over the eastern half of the CWA and move off to the east by around midnight. A cold front will move through the region Friday, but after Thursday`s convection there will only be enough moisture for more rain along and southeast of the I-35 Corridor during the morning and afternoon. And even in this area chances will be low. Friday night an upper level ridge will begin moving in from the west starting an extended dry period. This ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend. As it does temperatures will warm. Highs will reach the 90s to 105 by Saturday and remain there through the end of the period. Record highs may be possible along the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected though the period. South to southeast wind at DRT will increase this morning and remain elevated through the period with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots possible through this evening. A few thunderstorms may form west of DRT and move east over the terminal around 23-03Z. Southerly wind at I-35 sites this morning will turn southeasterly and become breezy in the afternoon and evening. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings will build in over the area early Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 69 82 70 / 0 10 70 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 67 83 69 / 0 10 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 68 86 71 / 0 10 60 20 Burnet Muni Airport 89 67 78 68 / 0 10 70 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 74 100 72 / 20 20 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 67 79 68 / 0 10 80 30 Hondo Muni Airport 94 70 89 69 / 0 10 40 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 67 84 70 / 0 10 60 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 67 83 73 / 0 10 70 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 71 86 71 / 0 10 60 20 Stinson Muni Airport 94 70 88 72 / 0 10 50 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...05 Aviation...27