655
FXPQ50 PGUM 051940
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
540 AM ChST Mon May 6 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
The Marianas has mostly clear skies, with light to gentle winds.
Altimetry shows combined seas of 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
The forecast was spot on today and minimal changes were needed. Over
the week, a few weak troughs will pass through the region. Near the
end of the week, Showers and possible thunderstorms may pop up for
mostly Guam and Rota, although Tinian and Saipan may get some too.
For the most part, fair weather is expected over the next few days
with short lived showers at times.

&&

.Marine/Seas...
Gentle to moderate will prevail over the region throughout the week.
Seas are expected to build through Wednesday, then begin to
diminish. Surf is expected to also rise and may reach the 9 foot mark
along north facing reefs. This would meet the criteria for high surf
advisory and high risk of rip currents.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Trade-wind convergence and occasional passing surface troughs will
produce showers in large areas between 3N and 7N, from the Marshall
Islands westward across Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk States through the
next few days at least. Showers will be numerous and rainfall heavy
at times, especially over Kosrae and Pohnpei Tuesday into Wednesday.

Otherwise, Drought conditions will persist for the far northern RMI,
but late this week, patchy showers may develop farther north toward
Wotje, perhaps up to about 10N.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and combined seas of 5 to 7 feet and
up to 8 feet in the northern Marshall Islands are expected most of
this week. Winds will be gusty and waves rough near heavy showers.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
ASCAT Analysis indicates a couple weak circulations are embedded in
the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) that`s currently over far southern
Palau. One is near 4N136E and another near 1N145E. Models differ in
the forecast details quite a bit, but GFS is quite aggressive and
indicates a circulation could further develop over southeast Yap
State later this week, and GFS then moves the circulation toward the
northwest. Other models are less aggressive. For now, our forecasts
indicate increasing showers for both Yap and Koror by Friday through
the weekend, and the situation will be monitored carefully in the
coming days.

Models show a north swell entering the region by midweek and that
may cause elevated surf, especially along northern shores. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds and sea conditions are expected for Yap and
Palau the next couple of days, but marine travel conditions will
need to be monitored carefully as this week progresses.

$$


.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
Micronesia: Simpson