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000
FXUS66 KLOX 151600
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
900 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...15/228 AM.

Dry and warmer conditions will kick in today and continue through next
weekend. Low clouds and fog should also affect portions of the
coast and valleys during the night and morning hours through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...15/847 AM.

***UPDATE***

Low clouds were noted this morning over interior SLO/SBA Counties
and along parts of the L.A. County coast into some of the
adjacent vlys. These low clouds are expected to scatter out or
clear from these areas by midday. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies
can be expected thru the afternoon except for some hi clouds at
times. Offshore pressure gradient trends to the E and especially
N this morning has resulted in some gusty NW to N winds for the
foothills and mtns and should continue thru the afternoon in these
areas. Along the coast, winds should turn breezy to gusty onshore
this afternoon.

Temps today will turn quite a bit warmer than yesterday as more
sunshine combined with rising H5 heights, thicknesses and boundary
layer temps will result in an increase from about 10-20 deg below
normal yesterday to about 5-10 deg below normal today. Afternoon
max temps from the inland coast to the vlys and lower mtns are
expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

***From Previous Discussion***

Sfc high pressure will build in to the north of the area tonight
and the offshore push from the north will increase to about 4 mb.
Since there is no upper support this will only support sub
advisory level winds through the northerly passages from the SBA
south coast through the VTA mtns and then as far east as the I-5
corridor. The offshore flow from the N and neutral flow in the E/W
direction will prevent any low clouds from forming. Hgts will
continue to rise and max temps will leap another 5 to 10 degrees.
This warming will push almost all areas to above normal.

The ridge flattens out some on Wednesday and onshore flow to the
east increases while the offshore flow from the north relaxes.
This should allow some low clouds to develop across the Central
Coast and the Paso Robles area. Max temps will continue to rise
across the mtns and interior but the weaker offshore flow will
bring an earlier cooling sea breeze and the csts/vlys will cool 1
or 2 degrees.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...15/322 AM.

The ridge really flattens on Thursday and onshore flow increases
to the east. A grip of mid and high clouds will move over the area
and a deep marine layer will cover the coasts and vlys. The
clouds and onshore flow will conspire to lower max temps by 2 to 5
degrees.

The mid and upper level clouds will clear out for Friday but the
marine layer clouds will still cover most of the coasts and vlys
in the morning. A 7.2 mb onshore push in the afternoon will bring
breezy westerly winds to the Antelope Vly in the afternoon. The
onshore flow and slightly lower hgts will bring 2 to 4 degrees of
cooling to the area. This will bring max temps across the csts and
vlys down to 3 to 6 degrees under normals.

The night through morning low cloud pattern will continue Friday
and into the weekend. Long range temperature guidance indicates
some warming each day but given the 6 to 7 mbs of onshore flow
each afternoon would not be surprises if temps near the coast
change little day to day.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1158Z.

At 1130Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

There were areas of low clouds across much of the region this
morning. Conditions were mostly low MVFR to high IFR, except LIFR
to VLIFR in the foothills/mtns. Skies are expected to clear in
most areas by late morning. Weak offshore flow is expected to keep
the region mostly clear tonight/Tue morning, with VFR conds expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of
MVFR cigs from 12Z-17Z today, and a 20% chance from 11Z-16Z Tue.
There is a 20% chance of an E wind component of 8 kt thru 17Z today.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the TAF. There is a 20-30%
the MVFR vsbys will linger thru 17Z, with a 30-40% chance of MVFR
cigs thru 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/741 AM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
Expect Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds and seas much of
the time thru late Tue night. There may be periods of winds below
SCA levels this morning, and again Tue morning, especially in the
northern zone (PZZ670), but these should be fairly brief. There
is a 20-30% chance of Gale force wind gusts around Pt. Conception
during the evening hours today/Tue. There is a 20-30% chance of
SCA level winds Wed thru Thu, and a 40% chance on Fri.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, high confidence in the forecast.
SCA level NW winds are expected thru late tonight. SCA level
winds are likely during the afternoon/evening hours Tue, then SCA
conds are not expected Tue night thru Fri.

For the Inner Waters S Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence
in the forecast. SCA level W-NW winds are expected in western
portions of the SBA Channel thru late tonight. There is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds this afternoon/evening in eastern portions
of the SBA Channel and in the southern inner waters from Anacapa
Island to Malibu. There is a 40% chance of SCA level W-NW winds
in western portions of the SBA Channel late Tue afternoon into Tue
night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected Tue night thru Fri.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Sirard
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox