965
FXUS64 KLZK 202307
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
607 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Weak ridging has brought another warm and dry day across the Natural
State. The ridging will begin to break down tomorrow, but warm and
dry weather will still continue.

The big change will be on Wednesday, as an upper level shortwave
ripples across the area, and a surface cold front starts to move
into NW Arkansas early Monday.

Convection ahead of the front, aided by the shortwave, should kick
off early thunderstorms in the northwestern zones. Storms should
overspread much of the forecast area by afternoon.

I don`t see the front making a lot of progress into the state with a
nearly parallel flow aloft...keeping much of the state in the warm
sector. Afternoon mixed layer CAPE values on Wednesday look to be in
the 2000-2500 j/kg range over a wide portion of the state, with most
unstable layers exceeding 3500 j/kg. There could be a bit of a cap
remaining in place by midday, but by late afternoon it looks like it
will be gone.

Directional shear is present in the lowest levels, but looks to be
relatively weak and shallow...so the greatest concern will likely be
large hail and downbursts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Unsettled, that`s the way the long term portion of the forecast
looks this afternoon. Persistent H500 SW flow will remain in place
through the end of the period as ridging extends from northern
Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico while a series of cyclones rotate
east generally along the US/CA border.

Helping to focus the activity will be a nearly stationary front
draped across portions of the Northeast southwestward across
Arkansas. A parade of mid-level disturbances will traverse the flow
aloft and aid in the development of rain and thunderstorms locally,
practically on a daily basis. Depending on available instability and
other parameters at the time, a few rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible. A more robust H500 wave is expected to
move across the area from Thu PM to Fri AM which could provide an
opportunity for more organized TS development.

Going into the weekend and early next week, the sfc front may lift a
bit farther north. This could, at least for a few days, limit how
widespread precip becomes across Arkansas with areas to the north
more favored. Regardless, with several rounds of rain and
thunderstorms expected across at least the northern half of the
state there is increased concern for heavy rainfall potential. Above
normal temperatures remain likely through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Expect VFR flight category at all sites over the forecast period
from Monday evening until Tuesday evening. Surface winds will remain
established out of the south-southeast before surface wind gusts
will begin across all terminals in excess of 25 knots with winds
shifting slightly to the south to south-southwest across all
terminals by late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  89  70  83 /   0   0  30  60
Camden AR         69  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  30
Harrison AR       67  87  66  77 /   0  10  50  80
Hot Springs AR    69  90  73  87 /   0   0  20  50
Little Rock   AR  71  91  73  88 /   0   0  20  50
Monticello AR     71  91  73  90 /   0   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      69  89  72  86 /   0   0  20  60
Mountain Home AR  67  88  67  79 /   0  10  50  70
Newport AR        69  89  71  85 /   0   0  30  50
Pine Bluff AR     70  90  73  89 /   0   0  10  30
Russellville AR   69  90  70  84 /   0   0  30  60
Searcy AR         67  89  70  85 /   0   0  20  50
Stuttgart AR      71  89  73  88 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74