679
FXUS62 KMFL 090715
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

An expansive mid level ridge centered over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico will build over South Florida today, while surface high
pressure remains over the western Atlantic. With a northwesterly
wind flow aloft, a drier air mass will keep the chances of
showers and storms very limited, however, there may be just enough
lingering lower level moisture across the Lake Okeechobee region
to support an isolated shower or storm where the sea breezes
interact during the afternoon. Any shower or storm that does
develop will be short lived and will quickly diminish after sunset
due to loss of diurnal heating. With many areas seeing a good
deal of sunshine, high temperatures today will soar into the upper
80s and lower 90s across the coastal areas while the interior
sections rise into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values may
reach the triple digits especially across interior portions of
Southwest Florida in the afternoon.

On Friday, the mid-level ridge will remain in control over South
Florida with dry conditions, but a mid-level shortwave and
associated surface low will drop into the Southeast US. This will
result in surface winds over our area turning southwesterly, and
allow high temperatures on Friday to be a bit warmer than on
Thursday. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the upper
80s, with most of the metro area in the low to mid 90s. Interior
areas will reach the mid or even upper 90s. Heat index values
will reach triple digits across most of South Florida during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The long anticipated weak cold front arrives in Florida on
Saturday morning before stalling over the Peninsula. This boundary
will be a highly weak one and thus not have strong forcing, plus
the upper level pattern will be lacking energy. Therefore, limited
convective showers and storms are expected across the region for
the weekend. There is likely to be isolated convection due to
sufficient moisture (PWATs ~ 1.2-1.5") and some locations could
reach their local convective temperature with warm diurnal heating
on the menu on Saturday. However, cloud coverage with the
approaching front could prevent this warming. The strength of the
cap, along with above normal temperatures and plentiful moisture,
will be the determining factors. Weak ridging will rebuild on
Sunday, inhibiting rain chances for Sunday.

While a relatively benign upper level pattern is projected to
remain in place through the middle of next week, there are several
opportunities for quick impulses to interact with the adequate
moisture pooling and hot temperatures. Thus, with the daily sea
breezes, there is chance for daily isolated to scattered
convective showers and thunderstorms.

The temperatures will continue to trend above normal with daily
highs, through the long term, will reach the low to mid 90s for
most locations. Despite the frontal passage, Saturday will is
forecast to remain warm due to it`s weakness. Heat indices have
the potential to climb into the 100s on several days through the
long term period. However, at this moment, no counties are
expected to reach heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Generally VFR through the period with light southeasterly flow
turning more southerly as it picks up later this morning. APF
could see another Gulf sea breeze develop and turn the wind out of
the west to southwest by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A moderate to fresh southerly wind flow across the local waters today
will turn southwesterly on Friday as a frontal boundary approaches
the region. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase during the first part of the weekend as a frontal
boundary moves closer to the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches
today, while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in place
across the beaches of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative
humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could
range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of
South Florida. This could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions
across these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  75  94  76 /   0   0   0  10
West Kendall     91  72  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
Opa-Locka        92  74  95  75 /   0   0   0  10
Homestead        88  74  91  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  75  92  76 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  88  75  94  76 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   92  75  96  76 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  90  73  95  74 /  10   0  10  20
Boca Raton       90  74  94  75 /   0   0  10  20
Naples           90  75  89  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...Culver