101
FXUS64 KOHX 061129
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Our active weather pattern continues. Currently, we`re in between
two rounds of storms during this overnight period. The first has
moved into KY and the second is in West TN, headed this way. While
no severe weather is expected with this second round, an isolated
wind gust or two of 40 mph isn`t out of the question. The bigger
thing we`re monitoring is the rainfall amounts. Over West TN, as
these storms came out of the Memphis area, 0.75 to 1.5 inches has
been noted in MRMS data. These numbers are possible in isolated
areas of western Middle TN over the next few hours, but on the
whole, everyone should get around an inch. Any training will lead to
the higher numbers. Here`s the problem: the last few runs of the
HRRR have begun to hint at this round getting through the area by
about 15Z, then a third wave may develop in West TN and cross the TN
River by lunch time. If this does pan out, I`m a little worried
about at least localized flash flooding for those who get both the
second and third rounds of rains. Rainfall totals could be at 3
inches or better on top of already wet soils. We will need to
monitor this closely -- especially for areas along and north of I-40.
For the lunchtime development, forecast soundings are fairly spring-
like, but shear values are meager. Enough to support thunderstorms,
but severe chances are negligible, at best. Rain chances may linger
in the evening hours across the northern Cumberland Plateau, but
most should be dry tonight.

That`s just today and tonight! I haven`t even gotten to the severe
weather threats for Tuesday and Wednesday!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast soundings Tuesday and Wednesday continue to show some of
the more impressive environmental conditions I`ve seen this spring.
CAPE will build into the 1500-2000 J/Kg range on Tuesday as
temperatures climb into the low to mid-80s and dew points climb into
the upper 60s, close to 70 degrees. Shear values improve on Tuesday
and while they`re not incredibly impressive, 40 kts of 0-6 km shear
and ~200 SRH is nothing to sneeze at. However, on Tuesday, I don`t
see much of anything in the way of a focusing mechanism for lift --
at least in the models. Doesn`t mean we can`t get a outflow that
pushes into Middle TN from upstream storms, but even with the
impressive instability parameters, if we don`t have some lifting
mechanism, we may be hard-pressed for get much more than isolated
storm development. For now, we`ll carry a wind and hail threat for
any storms that do develop on Tuesday.

Wednesday still looks like the better day for severe weather. Heat
and moisture continue to build into the region leading to CAPE
values potentially north of 3000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours.
Without a doubt, the highest values we`ve seen so far this spring.
While that`s all fine and dandy, we may struggle during the
afternoon to see anything that will provide lift. We`ll have to
refine the Wednesday afternoon forecast over the next couple of
days, especially as we get into CAM range. However, as the
associated front moves into the region Wednesday evening, even our
global models are picking up on what looks to be a fairly intense
line of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. While we`ll
lose some of the heating of the day, CAPE values manage to remain in
the 1500-2000 J/Kg range and it`s ahead of this line where shear
values start to increase and lapse rates get sharp (7.5+). If this
verifies, we`ll be looking at all forms of severe weather being
possible. Wind, large hail, tornadoes - and with PWs being in the
90th percentile - flash flooding, as well. There`s plenty to fine
tune over the next few days, so please be weather aware through the
first half of this week.

After Wednesday night, it looks like we should get a break from this
active pattern for at least a few days. Temperatures relax back into
the 70s and our next rain chances may not come until the end of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and storms are moving through the terminals this
morning. There will likely be a break before more showers and
storms develop around midday and continue through the afternoon
and evening hours. The exact timing cannot be pinned down but
tempo tsra groups were added when confidence is highest. Showers
and storms should taper off no later than 00z-03z with the
remainder of the taf period being dry. Vis could be reduced to
IFR/MVFR when terminals are impacted by showers and storms. There
is a chance MVFR cigs temporarily impact CKV this morning but
confidence was not high enough to include. Winds will generally be
S/SW around 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  67  85  68 /  90  30  60  60
Clarksville    80  66  84  66 /  90  40  50  50
Crossville     76  61  79  63 /  90  60  50  70
Columbia       83  66  84  66 /  70  30  50  60
Cookeville     77  63  81  65 / 100  60  60  70
Jamestown      75  61  81  63 /  90  60  60  70
Lawrenceburg   82  66  83  67 /  60  20  50  60
Murfreesboro   83  65  84  66 /  90  30  50  60
Waverly        82  66  83  66 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan