641
FXUS64 KOUN 101057
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A beautiful day is in store for today with mostly sunny skies,
high temperatures mainly in the 70`s and light to moderate
north/northeast winds. The back end of a weak cold front moves
through and low-level CAA behind this boundary will push through
the Red River area by this afternoon. The only sensible impacts
with this FROPA will be the slightly cooler temperatures compared
to yesterday (only by a few degrees).

With the closed upper low remaining over the Great Basin, short-
wave ridging overhead flattens towards this evening and a surface
high will move over our area tonight. This will shift winds to
the south. Clouds will increase late tonight and towards Saturday
morning across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The closed upper low will slowly progress towards the central Rockies
on Saturday as the surface high continues shifting southeastward. With
the approach of this upper low and subsequent low-level WAA, an area
of showers and storms are expected to develop along the Texas panhandle
and into west Texas on Saturday. Rain could begin developing into our
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas counties as early as Saturday
morning, though better chances exist in the afternoon for these areas.
With little instability available, mostly rain is anticipated with
a slight chance of general thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the upper trough begins to slowly eject over southwest Kansas,
and we should see dewpoint temperatures begin to increase slightly with
the increased low-level mass response. Rain is likely across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas on Sunday morning with high chances
spreading into northwest Oklahoma on Sunday afternoon. Storm chances
have increased slightly for Sunday afternoon across parts of western
Oklahoma and western north Texas and a Marginal Risk of severe storms
has been introduced by the SPC. There is some signal for this potential,
as seen in the 00Z GFS forecast soundings and in the CSU machine learning
probabilistic guidance. However, confidence is low at this time given
the lack agreement among other models and of run-to-run uncertainty
from the GFS. Nevertheless, forecast soundings depict the potential
for large hail if storms can develop ahead of a diffuse dryline.

Shower and storms become likely across central Oklahoma on Sunday
night as the upper trough slowly moves across Kansas and Oklahoma,
and chances linger into Monday (best chances east of I-35) as the
system occludes and slowly departs from our region. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out.

Tuesday looks dry as a ridge passes overhead, and attention then turns
to another trough that reaches the western CONUS. This trough appears
to be characterized by a split-flow regime, with northern- and
southern-stream vorticity lobes present. Strong to severe thunderstorms
appear possible on Wednesday with the approach of a lead southern-
stream wave and again on Thursday ahead of a cold front.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Aviation concerns will be minimal over the next 24 hours. There
are areas of greater cloud concentration this morning in
northwest OKlahoma as well as the Red River Valley, but both areas
will remain comfortably within VFR ceilings, as will the
remainder of the area over the TAF period. Winds are light and out
of the north this morning. That is expected to continue until
about sunset, when they will largely become light and variable.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  56  79  58 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         79  56  78  56 /   0  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  78  57  76  58 /   0  10  20  30
Gage OK           78  52  79  53 /  10  10  10  50
Ponca City OK     77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         79  56  80  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...04