Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
705 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Primary weather impacts are wind and elevated fire weather
conditions in the short term period.

An amplified mid-upper level trough overhead now will move
eastward and deepen further through tomorrow. Significant pressure
gradient will be present along with north-northwesterly winds of
55-65 knots near the top of the mixed layer. Thus, winds could
peak near High Wind Warning criteria during the afternoon. We have
covered the entire area with a broad Wind Advisory from 4am
through 7pm for now, and perhaps can carve out a more localized
corridor of brief High Wind Warning criteria upon further
collaboration with neighboring offices tonight. This is in
addition to the existing Wind Advisory through 7pm this evening
across western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas for
gusts up to about 45 mph.

Along with the strong winds will come sufficiently low RH for
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions tomorrow, but
there are some complicating (potentially limiting) factors with
regards to fuels. See the Fire Weather section below for details.

Otherwise, the far downstream end of the warm conveyor belt, and
deformation area should result in some convection with in a
shallow CAPE profile that could potentially contain some
lightning, but should primarily be showers. This will be confined
to portions of central and eastern Oklahoma.



(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Winds will start a downward trend Thursday night into Friday as the
deep upper level cyclone continues to move east and ridging begins
to set into the region. Surface winds will by Saturday will be light
and shift out of the south through the weekend. Skies will be clear
this weekend and temperatures will become seasonably cool, with
highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s/40s.

The next best chance for precipitation currently looks to be early
next week, late Monday into Tuesday. Upper level ridging gradually
gives way to a more zonal flow late in the weekend. Models and
ensembles indicate that as an upper level cyclone moves through
Canada, perturbations in the zonal flow through the region will
result in a series of shortwaves helping support some lee side
cyclogenesis in the Rockies and the development of a surface
low pressure cyclone/cold front moving through and possibly
generating some precipitation. There is lots of uncertainty at the
moment with the timing and location of the upper air pattern, as
well as surface moisture return enabling any precipitation, so
there`s plenty to keep an eye on through the remainder of the week
into the weekend.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

MVFR ceilings are expected to lift tonight over central Oklahoma.
Very strong north winds are developing and will persist through
the day Thursday. LLWS will occur through sunrise with north to
northwest winds up to 60kts. At the surface, gusts over 40 knots
will be common Thursday.


Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

RH/wind parameter space will be minimally supportive of critical
conditions across portions western north Texas and western
Oklahoma. However, given the marginality of the meteorological
conditions, the uneven distribution of wetting rainfall, lack of a
freeze to push fuels into full dormancy, and good RH recovery
will result in elevated to near critical conditions and at this
time we will not issue a Red Flag Warning. Initial attack fire
activity may be enhanced under these conditions, but the chance of
more significant fire spread is conditional. Rainfall footprint
suggests local corridors where fire spread could be enhanced due
to lack of wetting rains may include Elk City to Hollis, and
Buffalo to Arnett. Conditions will be monitored closely and trends
may suggest a shift in messaging strategy.



Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned at this time.


Oklahoma City OK  50  63  45  63 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         50  67  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  52  69  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           45  64  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     48  63  44  62 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         53  67  47  66 /  20  10   0   0


OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>048-

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.



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