Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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796
FXUS64 KOUN 122357
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Another muggy evening is expected with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s area wide and temps hanging around 85 to 90 near sunset. Late
tonight into the early morning hours a few showers and thunderstorms
may try to move off the high plains into western OK and north TX.
Certainly do not anticipate anything like last night with minimal
forcing. Hot and muggy conditions will continue Sunday under the
influence of the subtropical ridge axis. Heat indices will approach
advisory criteria (105) near and south of the Red River Sunday
afternoon. A remnant vort max from the overnight convection rotating
around the eastern fringe of the ridge axis and a cold pocket aloft
could result in a few diurnal thunderstorms developing within an
instability axis (uncapped for the most part) across western OK and
north TX late tomorrow afternoon thru Sunday evening. If they do
manage to develop, they could pose a marginally severe hail and wind
threat. Localized heavy rainfall will also be possible given
fairly weak steering flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

A broad, mid-level ridge will continue to build across the Desert
Southwest and vicinity throughout next week. Remnants of some storm
activity west of the area, could make its way into parts of western
Oklahoma and western north Texas early Monday morning. Otherwise,
the aforementioned mid-level pattern will support weaker easterly
surface winds early in the week, transitioning back to southerly by
mid week. With this pattern, temperatures should remain near normal
for this time of year, with highs in the lower 90s for most of the
area. Slight chance of storms are possible next weekend as easterly
surface winds promote upslope flow along the Rockies. Right now,
confidence is low for widespread precipitation chances.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

VFR conditions and northeast to southeast winds generally less
than 12 kts are expected through the day Sunday.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72  95  70  95 /  10  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  96  71  95 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           69  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     69  91  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         74  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09



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