Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 021952
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Complex of storms in central OK will continue to move south the
rest of this afternoon into early evening. Additional isolated to
scattered storms could also develop further west this
afternoon/evening near the outflow boundary that this storm complex
created and is moving across portions of the fa. Other storms could
also develop and/or move into south central parts of the area.
Radars show some activity is also developing south of the Red River
in the moist airmass.

Despite relatively weak wind shear, the moist airmass and large CAPE
means that some of the storms could be strong to severe this
afternoon and evening with strong wind gusts the main concern,
although small hail will also be possible.

Some models are still showing another storm complex could develop
north and move across portions of the area tonight. However, other
models show that this will not develop. Models haven`t had a great
handle on what has happened today and in general can have problems
in weakly forced environments so have some low PoPs in for parts of
the fa tonight but this is with low confidence.

Low chances for showers and storms will continue across parts of the
area during the day Friday but what happens Friday will be somewhat
dependent on what occurs overnight.

Otherwise, conditions Friday are expected to be not quite so hot and
humid Friday afternoon. Some locations may still experience triple
digit heat index values tomorrow but not as high as the last few
days and not as widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Models continue to show a weak shortwave perturbation in the upper
ridge digging across the eastern half of Oklahoma for Friday night.
With a weak surface trough/boundary expected well to the south
(northern Texas), and capping by a nocturnal inversion north of the
boundary, won`t expect to see any of the ample 70 degree plus
dewpoint low-level moisture being tapped into should convection
occur. Although the dynamics may be in place, subtle mid-level
moisture available will keep POPs very low mainly east of I-35. Also
for Friday night, both NAM & GFS project an MCS coming down off the
high plains of southwest Kansas, although both Canadian & ECMWF
disagree, so will also keep low POPs due to model uncertainly across
northwest Oklahoma.  With the weak flow aloft, synoptic models are
cranking out QPF through Monday, although the model scale is a
little bit too large to lock on these smaller mesoscale features.
Widespread low POPs will remain in the forecast through Monday
night.  Models do hint another MCS coming down from the Central High
Plains on Sunday night, so have the highest POPs (30s to 40s) of the
long range in place across the northwest quadrant of our forecast
area and extending temporally into early Monday morning.

As far as temperatures, expecting seasonably climatically average
values across our area (lower to mid 90s) with negligible heat index
values.  However, expecting a mid-week warming trend to begin on
Wednesday as the upper ridge will be building further northward.  As
a result, we could also be seeing triple digit heat index value
return by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

VFR/low VFR ceilings are expected this TAF period. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern and central
OK this afternoon and evening. Variable strong winds are possible
near the storms. An outflow boundary is also moving across the
area which will cause winds to briefly shift but the overall wind
direction will be from the south and southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  95  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
Hobart OK         73  99  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  99  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           69  97  69  93 /  30  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     73  95  71  92 /  30  20  20  20
Durant OK         75  97  74  95 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...25



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