232
FXUS64 KOUN 201116
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
516 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

- Winter weather advisory for portions of northern and western
  Oklahoma Monday. Accumulations of one to two inches likely.

- Cold weather advisory for most of the area overnight Monday into
  Tuesday morning.

- Warmer temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Dry low-level air will keep snowfall at bay early this morning.
Moistening of the low levels later in the morning, will foster
accumulating snow across portions of western and northern
Oklahoma. A winter weather advisory is in effect for portions of
western, northwestern, and northern Oklahoma today. These
locations are likely to see 1-2 inches of snow, with potentially
local higher amounts of 3-4 inches. In fact, NBM probabilities of
greater than 4 inches is 20-40% across far northern Oklahoma.
Given the short temporal residence of any banding of moderate
precipitation, these probabilities seem fitting, even with the
snow-to-liquid ratios being around 18:1. (i.e., it will not take a
lot of precipitation to get heavier accumulation).

Any snow bands will be oriented from west to east and will move
southward across the area. Forcing is expected to decrease further
to the south, so expect intensity and coverage to decrease as the
overall system moves southward. A cold front will begin to move
in around sunset, which will bring another shot of colder air
across the entire area into Tuesday. Overnight wind chills are
expected to be near or below 0 F across the entire area. A cold
weather advisory is in effect across most of the area overnight
Monday into Tuesday morning (excluding far north central and east
central Oklahoma).

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Another mid-level shortwave is expected to approach the southern
Rockies late Tuesday. Lee troughing along the Rockies will help
surface winds back towards the south Tuesday, bringing warmer air
back to the north across the area. High temperatures Tuesday will
be near freezing, as the residual cold air scours to the north. As
the shortwave moves through the central Plains, another cold
front will push through Wednesday afternoon. Luckily, highs are
expected to still reach the 40s across the area ahead of this
frontal boundary. Lows Wednesday night will dip back down to the
20s, given the sufficient radiational cooling.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

A warming trend back up into the 50s is expected across the area
as southerly winds return late in the week and mid-level ridging
builds in. For the most part, overnight lows will stay in the 20s
to 30s, given the clear skies that are expected. The long term
will be mainly dry, outside of the low chance for showers across
far southern Oklahoma over the weekend.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

A front moving into northwest Oklahoma this morning will bring light
(perhaps briefly breezy) north winds, a chance for snow, and reduced
ceiling / visibilities. Snow chances, ceilings, and visibilities
will shift southeast with the front through the day. As this wave
shifts southeast, snow chances will decrease and ceilings /
visibilities associated with the front will improve.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  28   8  32  22 /  30  20   0   0
Hobart OK         27   5  35  21 /  40  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  30  14  35  22 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           21  -1  36  18 /  80  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     24   3  31  20 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         31  17  33  20 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     OKZ004>006-009>011-014-015.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>048-
     050>052.

TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14