Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 231518
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1118 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through Monday. The
next chance of rain returns Tuesday. Temperature will stay
above average to close out the month.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Seasonally cool conditions will prevail with decreasing cloud
  cover.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Radar trends indicate that precipitation has come to a close for
the area as drier and cooler air fills in behind a cold front.
Upper level clouds are departing, but northerly flow over Lake
Erie, low-level cold advection, and a passing mid-level
shortwave trough will all be favorable for stratocumulus
maintenance for much of the day. This will act to limit daytime
high recoveries through this afternoon, even with the March
sun. Daytime mixing below the inversion may allow for gusts of
up to 20mph to 30mph this afternoon in an elevated pressure
gradient behind the low.

By the time late afternoon and evening comes around, there is
some indication that mixing will overcome saturation below the
inversion and allow drier air to clear some low-cloud cover,
particularly in eastern Ohio. If this does realize, temperatures
could peak a few degrees higher before sunset.

Overnight tonight, there is some deviance in the cloud cover
forecast. If mixing and clearing is more robust today, there is
a higher probability those clear conditions will persist
overnight. If not, some low clouds may linger, most likely for
the ridges and northwest Pennsylvania. Utilizing efficient
radiate cooling, lows are expected to bottom out around 10
degrees below average, with the most temperature uncertainty
tied to cloud cover uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather through Monday under high pressure
- Warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A broad surface high will move north of the region Sunday as
minor 500mb height rises are anticipated. This will keep the
area dry and should provide mainly clear skies. The colder air
aloft will be shoved northeastward as the upper level heights
slowly rise. Sunday will still be a bit cool with temperatures
at or just below seasonal averages.

Shortwave continues across the Upper Ohio Valley region through
Monday. A warming trend is expected on Monday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the area, and the flow veers to the south. Highs
are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front
- Mainly dry and seasonable to end the week

----------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate a trough across the central CONUS will
advance slowly eastward toward the Upper Ohio Valley region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing rain chances are expected as
the trough and its associated surface cold front track east
across the area. The front is expected to move east of the area
by Thursday, though some uncertainty exists in how far east it
will progress before a wave of low pressure tracks north along
it. Maintained slight-low chance pops due to the uncertainty.

High pressure is expected to build across the region Thursday
night and Friday, with dry and seasonable weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR will continue early this morning as a cold front shifts east
of the area. Rain will continue to taper off from W-E with the
exiting front, though a brief wintry mix is possible before the
precipitation ends.

Expect a gradual improvement to MVFR through the afternoon with
mixing and dry advection, with VFR returning by late
afternoon/evening as high pressure builds in. A clearing trend
is expected by tonight under the high.

Gusty NNW wind from 20-25kt is expected today with a tight
pressure gradient and mixing. Wind should diminish this evening
as mixing ends.

.Outlook...
Height rises and surface high pressure will promote dry weather
and VFR conditions until the next low pressure system arrives
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM


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