Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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335 FXUS65 KPUB 121038 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 438 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more round of rain, higher elevation snow, and thunderstorms today before storm departs tonight. - Showers are expected each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, with most showers remaining around and along the mountains. - Unsettled weather returns for part of the midweek period, with high (60-79%) confidence in widespread precipitation chances, but low (20-39%) confidence in precipitation amounts. - Quieter weather is anticipated for the end of the week and start of next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 435 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Active morning so far with 17 inches of snow falling in an 9 hour period at Leadville in Lake county last evening and overnight. Webcams at Fremont Pass and Leadville shows some heavy snow accumulations and this area is under the TROWAL/wrap around band of precipitation along the northern side of the upper low centered across southwest CO as of 09z. Convective enhancement has helped precipitation and snow accumulations over-perform as is typical of wet spring storms. Question will be how much of this will continue across our area as the upper low pulls eastward and this precipitation band spreads south and eastward with time. High res models have been increasing QPF across Fremont and Teller counties as well as the upper Arkansas river valley. Although loss of heating would suggest less widespread convective enhancement this morning, persistent lightning with convective elements continues to percolate along the front range which is funneling moisture into the central mountains. Will follow the trends of the high res models and expand advisories eastward into portions of Teller and Fremont counties this morning. Temperatures in Teller county have already dropped to around freezing and model soundings have been showing the potential for snow levels to drop to around 8500 feet this morning. Warmth of ground may mitigate impacts below 9000 feet, but can`t rule out some heavy wet slushy accumulations during the heavier precipitation rates this morning. Have limited advisories to the morning hours for now as snow levels are advertised to rise again this afternoon. Central mountains will see advisories and warnings continue through 15z and it is possible that extensions of the advisories may be needed for southern areas through 18z depending on how consolidated this wrap around band maintains. Elsewhere will see rain showers across the lower elevations below 9000 feet with lighter snow accumulations across the higher areas of our southern mountains due to the storm track. Across the plains today, showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon with the potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms across the far eastern plains towards 21z. HREF mean CAPE stays below 1000 j/kg with better shear to the east. But for a any early afternoon development there is the potential for higher CAPE before the surface dew point mixes out behind the boundary. Hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary risks. Depending on the position of the boundary and timing of storm development, can`t rule out a landspout if it can tap some resident vorticity along a more stationary segment of the boundary. Baca and Prowers counties may have the best chance for this, albeit this probability still looks low and mesoscale trends will need to be monitored closely. Like yesterday, leaned towards the cooler side of guidance for high temperatures today where precipitation is likely to affect heating. Went closer to model blends farther east. Clearing takes place overnight so went on the cooler side of guidance for the valleys. May need to monitor these areas for potential ground fog development towards morning. -KT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 435 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Monday - Tuesday: The start of the new week will bring some active weather to south central and southeastern Colorado, with daily chances of showers. A messy shortwave ridge will drift over the region, and while no major synoptic forcing is expected with this feature, minor orographic forcing will continue. This forcing, in combination with modest moisture still in place, will allow for showers to blossom each day, particularly along and immediately around the mountains. And while most precipitation is anticipated to remain around and along the mountains both days, a weak front from a wave to the north Tuesday afternoon may help to blossom additional showers across the eastern plains as it sags southward. Snow showers are expected for the peaks of the mountains, with rain showers and thunderstorms expected elsewhere. With all of that said, as diurnal instability wanes each day, any showers across the region are expected to weaken and dissipate heading into the overnight hours. As for temperatures, a warming trend is anticipated. Much of the area will warm to near to above seasonal temperatures for mid May. Wednesday - Thursday: For around the midweek period, more active weather is anticipated for the region. An unsettled pattern will develop over the area, as two lows/waves try to interact with each other. Ensemble model guidance is in good agreement about these features trying to phase with each other, but there is still some disagreement about timing of the phase and how much they phase together. Overall, there is high confidence (60-79%) this pattern will bring more widespread precipitation chances to south central and southeastern Colorado as the waves pass over the region. However, given some uncertainty in how these lows/waves will eventually interact, confidence is low (20-39%) in how much precipitation falls. With that said though, the gap between the lowest ensemble model and the highest ensemble model has closed some, so this could be trend toward a more particular solution, and hopefully details on that will become more clear over the next few days. Looking at temperatures, much of the area will cool down to below seasonal values given the unsettled pattern over the region. Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the weekend, a downtick in active weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will develop into a more ridging pattern, and no major sources of forcing are expected to influence the region. Ensemble model guidance are in relatively good agreement on this pattern change, though are a bit more flat with the ridging. With no major forcing, dry conditions are expected for the region, though an an isolated shower can`t be ruled out along the mountains given weak orographic forcing. Then, as for temperatures, a rebound to warmer values is expected, as much of the area warms to above seasonal values for mid May. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 435 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 KCOS...Patchy LIFR to VLIFR fog will erode quickly by the 12z TAF issuance with -SHRA spreading into the terminal this morning as north winds increase behind a cold front. Gusts up to 25 kts will be possible through the day with predominantly MVFR cigs/vis with - SHRA. Improving conditions can be expected by late afternoon with a return to VFR conditions after 00z. KPUB...MVFR to VFR conditions expected at KPUB with another round of -SHRA late this morning into the afternoon. While VCTS is possible, think probabilities will be higher to the east of the site and will maintain VCSH for now. Winds will increase out of the north and gust up to 25 kts this afternoon. Activity should pull eastward with improving conditions after 00z. KALS...MVFR cigs possible this morning with the potential for some IFR fog/stratus through 14z. -SHRA will be possible at the terminal by mid morning through early afternoon with MVFR cigs. Improving conditions expected late afternoon into the evening with a return of VFR conditions. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ058>060. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ061. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ063-076- 081-082. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...KT