Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 270700
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 27 2021 - 12Z Fri Oct 29 2021

...Rain and strong winds associated with Nor`easter will begin to
wind down across the Northeast today as system moves out into the
Atlantic...

...Anomalous low pressure system to spark severe weather across
Gulf Coast today and then much of the Southeast on Thursday...

...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest through
Thusday...

The Nor`easter responsible for producing flash flooding and
powerful winds across much of the Northeast will begin to wane in
strength and impact today as the surface low moves out into the
North Atlantic. Additional rainfall amounts will be marginal, but
winds will remain strong until this evening when the surface
pressure gradient is weakens. Wind advisories, high wind warnings
and flood watches remain in effect for parts of southern New
England. Autumn-like temperatures will return to the East Coast
for the next several days in the wake of the departing Nor`easter
as well as the arrival of high pressure over the Ohio Valley and
eventually the Northeast.

Our current significant weather maker is generating rain showers
and thunderstorms across the Great Plains. The low pressure system
responsible for this will spread thunderstorm activity into the
Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast over the next few days. Severe
thunderstorms are likely to form along the primary cold front
moving from the Southern Plains to the Gulf coast through
Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms for the Louisiana coast today as well as
Slight Risks for the much of the Gulf and Southeast coasts through
Thursday. Convective line segments capable of generating damaging
winds and brief tornadoes are expected from these storms. This
system will also produce an axis of 1-2 inches of rain, with
locally higher amounts, particularly due to convection, across
much of the Mississippi Valley today. The upper-level pattern will
slow down and deepen into a closed low on Thursday as it directs
moisture from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Central
Appalachians, where an inch of rain is possible with locally
higher amounts. Showers will spread into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast this weekend as this system occludes and elevates into
the region. Below average high temperatures will filter in the
wake of this system over the Mississippi Valley and Southeast
heading into the weekend.

An approaching low pressure system will bring more wet weather to
the Pacific Northwest late today through Friday. Heavy snow will
impact the northern Cascades today while lower elevations receive
rain showers over the next couple of days. Critical Fire Weather
is forecast for parts of the Southern Plains today and Thursday.
Areas untouched by the ongoing rainfall and severe weather,
eastern New Mexico and south Texas, will be especially susceptible
to fire weather due to dry conditions and high surface wind speeds
on the order of 15-25 mph.


Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$




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