Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 172000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 18 2018 - 00Z Wed Jun 20 2018

...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain and areas
of flash flooding can be expected from parts of the Central Plains
and Midwest east to the Northeast through the early part of the
week...

...Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding are expected
across southeast Texas...

...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across much of the
Midwest on Monday while also spreading east across the Ohio Valley
and the Eastern Seaboard...

Multiple rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are
expected to impact many areas of the Central Plains, Midwest and
also the Northeast over the next couple of days as multiple waves
of low pressure lift up along a frontal zone that is very slowly
settling southeast across the region. Some of the thunderstorms
will be severe during especially the afternoon and evening hours,
and there will also be concerns for flash flooding given the
multi-day threat of heavy rainfall, although the overall axis of
heaviest rainfall will tend to be settling farther south compared
to the last couple of days. Nevertheless, locally several inches
of rain are expected, and with the regional concerns for flash
flooding, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted Slight and
Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall, with the Moderate Risk
focused on the highly sensitive areas of east-central Minnesota,
northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan going
through tonight and early Monday. The Storm Prediction Center
meanwhile has portions of these areas in a Slight Risk for severe
weather.

Meanwhile, areas south of the front across the Midwest will see
very hot and muggy conditions continue over the next couple of
days while also expanding off to the east to include the Ohio
Valley, most of New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. High
temperatures for most of these areas will be well into the 90s,
but when combined with the high humidity, it will feel as hot as
100 to 110 degrees. Heat advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings
are in effect locally to address these concerns.

There will be unsettled weather developing quickly for the start
of the new week across the western Gulf Coast region, and
especially for southeast Texas as a surge of tropical moisture in
off the western Gulf of Mexico and the arrival of a trough of low
pressure will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
region. This will bring beneficial rainfall for most of the region
as it has been quite dry and the area is locally in a drought.
However, several inches of rain are expected, and this area will
need to be very closely monitored for flash flooding should
heavier rainfall amounts materialize.

Elsewhere across the West, a deep trough of low pressure will
generally remain in place which will maintain cooler than normal
temperatures across most of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies and
the northern High Plains. Some additional rainfall is expected too
and especially across the Northern Rockies and northern High
Plains where a couple inches of additional rain is expected. Some
flooding concerns will be possible here as well.

Orrison

Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$





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