873
FXUS01 KWBC 161953
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 17 2026 - 00Z Sun Apr 19 2026

...Late season snow for the Northern Rockies, Central Rockies, and
Northern Plains...

...There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valleys and
Central/Southern Plains on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains
on Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northeast, Central Appalachians, and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
through Friday morning as an upper-level trough over the Lower
Great Lakes to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys moves eastward over the
Western Atlantic by Friday afternoon. In addition, a front
extending from the Upper Midwest to the Great Basin/Southern
California on Thursday will advance eastward to the Lower Great
Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the Western Gulf Coast by
Saturday. The system will produce late-season snow over parts of
the Northern Rockies, Central Rockies, and Northern Plains through
Friday.

On Friday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the boundary from the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to
the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valleys and Central/Southern Plains.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

In addition, the system will produce heavy rain across parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains from
Friday through Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valleys and Central/Southern Plains from Friday
through Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.
Furthermore, on Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, extending into the Southern
Plains.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Great Basin on Thursday
will move to the Northern Plains by Saturday.  The system will
produce late-season snowfall over the Northern/Central Rockies and
the Northern Plains through Friday. An approaching cold front over
the Northwest on Saturday will produce coastal rain over the
Northwest on Saturday.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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