Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 281159
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 AM AKDT Thu May 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

.Synopsis...A pretty nice day across the Interior and West Coast
with some isolated thunderstorms/showers in the Eastern Interior.
Stratus will continue to hang on over the Arctic with some patchy
fog. Breakup continues in the Arctic with flowing water in most
channels. Temperatures warming. Winds generally light today will
be increasing later Friday from the northeast across the Interior
and the Arctic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...28/00Z solutions are in good agreement short term, and
are in reasonable agreement through the extended periods.
Solutions showing some weak convection signatures, but nothing
widespread at this time. Surface solutions initialized well for
such a weak pattern over the area. Generally light winds through
Friday afternoon, then they pick up from the northeast over most
of the area as surface high sets up over the Eastern Arctic Coast
and a low pushes north into the southern Gulf of Alaska. Afternoon
Relative Humidity Values will be slightly lower each day through
the weekend.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 565 dam high is over the Northern Yukon
Territory and will remain stationary through Friday morning. A 560
dam high will develop this morning over Bristol Bay and be cutoff
from the Pacific Ridge, then move north to the Upper Kobuk by
Friday morning as it merges with the ridging over the Yukon
Territory. The high over the Yukon Territory then merges with
ridging over Western Canada. The high over the Upper Kobuk will
them move over Utqiagvik by Saturday morning at 565 dam, then
offshore to 200 nm northwest of Utqiagvik by Sunday morning. A 538
dam low 600 nm south of Prince William Sound will slowly move
north over the Gulf of Alaska, then merge with a A 527 dam low
that will move rapidly across the North Pacific Friday night to
and Saturday to be 200 nm south of Unalaska Sunday morning at 517
dam. A 536 dam low moving north across the Chukotsk Peninsula with
a shortwave extending southeast over Bethel will move over
Wrangel Island this afternoon as the shortwave moves to lie from
Wrangel Island to Ambler. The low will continue north over the
Dateline as the shortwave moves northeast along 75N then southeast
over Deadhorse by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon the
shortwave will lie along 78N then southeast across the central
Beaufort Sea. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies from King Salmon to
Utqiagvik with the cooler temperatures to the west. Warm air will
surge northwest into the Interior with the +10C isotherm pushing
over the Fortymile Country as the 0C isotherm is pushed west to
lie from Kuskokwim Bay to Koyuk to Utqiagvik this evening. More
warm air will surge into the Interior Friday as the +10C isotherm
pushes into the southeast Interior to lie from Eagle to Livengood
to Nikolai, them back southeast along the north slopes of the
Alaska Range.

Surface...A benign pattern over the state will persist. Weak high
pressure and thermal troughing north of the Alaska Range
continue. High pressure will be building over the West Coast today
and will set up over the Arctic Coast tonight with a 1031 mb high
near Oliktok Point. Broad low pressure will persist south of the
Alaska Range with a 994 mb low 500 nm south of Yakutat. The high
over the Arctic will move to 200 nm north of Kaktovik Saturday
morning at 1031 mb, while the low in Northeast Pacific will move
to 300 nm south of Cordova. Thermal trough developing in the
Copper River Basin and Southcentral Friday night will help tighten
the gradient over the Interior and Arctic. A decaying weather
front will merge with the Thermal trough as it slides north into
the Southern Interior Saturday night.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and patchy fog continues
on and off with the northeast to east flow persisting across the
area. Winds 5 to 20 mph with the strongest winds southwest of
Point Lay. Temperatures warming with highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...A slight chance of showers in
the Northwest Interior this morning, then clearing this afternoon.
Winds variable to 15 mph. Temperatures warming. Increasing chance
of showers in the Lower Yukon Delta Saturday and Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Pretty quiet day with some isolated
thunderstorms/showers in the Fortymile Country and Upper Tanana
Valley. Highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s warming to the
70s for most areas Friday. Isolated thunderstorms/showers along
the north slopes of the Alaska Range Friday and Saturday.
Winds from the northeast will be picking up Friday evening and
continue through Saturday with near Red Flag conditions
developing.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Mostly cloudy with showers
and increasing chances of afternoon thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday as decaying weather front moves north to lie from Nome to
Eagle with a low developing in Norton Sound. A Low will develop
near the AlCan border west of Dawson Tuesday night bringing
increased showers and a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday to the
Eastern Interior. Onshore flow will persist over the Arctic with
high pressure offshore, so no real end in sight for the low
stratus ceilings and periods of fog. Some showers in the Lower
Yukon Delta Monday along the front, shifting north to the Middle
Yukon and Seward Peninsula Tuesday. Winds Generally light at less
than 15 mph.

&&

.Fire Weather...Warmer and drier over the next few days with a
slight chance/isolated thunderstorm activity. Red Flag Watch
continues for Friday and Saturday. Northeast winds will be
increasing late Friday and continue through Saturday with near Red
Flag conditions during the afternoon and evening hours mainly
south of the Porcupine River and south and east of the Yukon
River.

&&

.Hydrology...Breakup continues in the Arctic with water running
in most channels. A small ice jam was reported with minor flooding
of low lying areas, but no impact to assets at this time. Interior
and West Coast waterways continue to fall slowly. For the latest
river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 20


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