Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 310417
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1217 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will cross the area late tonight into
Sunday morning. Cooler high pressure will build in from the
west Sunday afternoon into Monday and slide south of the area
Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday and
cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 am update... Secondary cold front approaching from the
west early this morning. Broken line of showers moving east from
Quebec toward the western Maine Border attm. Have only made
minor adjustments to ingest current temps/dew points otherwise
no other changes.

Prev discussion blo...
A secondary cold front will then move SE thru the FA Sun morn
as the upper trof crosses with shwrs msly exiting the FA by
midday. Temps, both lows tngt and spcly highs Sun will be much
cooler than recent past days with much drier air via lower
dewpoints advctg into all of the Rgn by Sun aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unseasonably cool air mass dominates through the period with
frost a threat both Sunday and Monday nights...mostly in
northern zones. If nothing changes, advisories will likely be
needed. Adjusted dew points downward both Monday and Tuesday
with the dry air mass and a deep mixed layer. There is an upper
trough in place Monday and a small unstable layer above 850mb,
but the air is so dry, will keep PoPs out of the area. The coast
will be the warm spot on Monday with the offshore flow as highs
reach the low 60s. A shallow inversion developing Monday night
will quickly break and highs on Tuesday will moderate into the
mid to upper 60s while humidity remains very low. The sea breeze
returns to the coast for the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The last day for the cool and dry air mass appears to be
Wednesday as highs continue the upward trend towards the upper
60s to around 70F. Dew points will start creeping up. A
shortwave will move southeastward out of Canada late Wednesday
and affect the area into early Thursday. Guidance is in decent
agreement for the highest PoPs Wednesday night into early
Thursday outside of the latest ECMWF, but stayed below likely at
this point. Have some concerns about thunderstorms with this
system, but would prefer more clarity on the evolution of this
system before advertising any thunder. The next shortwave
appears poised to move through the area Friday night into early
Saturday with showers.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Restrictions diminish to MVFR after 07z at FVE, CAR
and PQI as showers begin to move in ahead of next cold front.
May see IFR cigs twd 10z at FVE and CAR but confidence not high
enough to include in TAF issuance other than a SCT008 deck.
Improvement to VFR after 19z across the north. Downeast
terminals look to remain VFR thru end of TAF valid time. Light
and near calm winds becoming gusty out of the NW after frontal
passage.

SHORT TERM: Predominately VFR until Wednesday night into early
Thursday when IFR cigs are possible with showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Waves will diminish below SCA thresholds and cont so
thru Sun. Went with blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts
with consolidated spectral group wv pds arnd 10 sec.

SHORT TERM: Advisories for winds or seas do not appear likely
during the period. Fog will be an increasing threat Wednesday
into Thursday. Adjusted winds downward due to expected
stability.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Duda/VJN/MCW
Marine...Duda/VJN/MCW



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