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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040154
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
954 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary boundary will remain just south of the area tonight
and Thursday before lifting north Thursday night. A cold front
will move southeast across the region Friday night as low
pressure moves from southern Ontario into Quebec. High pressure
will build across the region this weekend through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A subtle short wave between 850 mb and 700 mb has been enough to
generate a few showers across NW Ohio. This combined with an area
of isentropic lift will likely persist through the overnight
with at least a few isolated thunderstorms. We will then continue
to monitor the convection over Illinois to see if an MCV ends
up drifting toward the region by sunrise. If this coverage
increases as it crosses Indiana we may need to nudge POP`s up.

Otherwise mostly cloudy skies and a very gradual increase in low
level moisture should keep lows in the lower to mid 60`s west.
Less cloud cover across NE OH/NW PA should allow lows to dip
into the middle to upper 50`s.

Previous Discussion...
Some uncertainty remains with precip potential late tonight
into Thursday morning, but for the most part, dry conditions
will be common for much of the overnight across the area.
Guidance continues to suggest some recovery of instability back
northward into the southern portion of the area late tonight
through Thursday, with a MCV slowly tracking east across the
southern part of the forecast area early Thursday through
Thursday afternoon. SPC continues to highlight the far southeast
part of the forecast area with a marginal risk in the Day 2
outlook. Have increased showers into the mid/high chance range
from late overnight/early Thursday morning through the day,
especially across the southern/southeast parts of the forecast
area. Conditions will stabilize across the region Thursday
night, with pops decreasing again through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A developing low ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough will move
east across Ontario on Friday and Quebec on Friday night and
Saturday. A cold front extending from this low will move across the
area Friday night. Ahead of this cold front, the atmosphere will
destabilize Friday afternoon, with MLCAPE expected to build to
around 1500 J/kg, allowing thunderstorms to develop Friday
afternoon/evening. Model forecast soundings show a bit of a cap
during the afternoon, which will limit the coverage to
isolated/scattered. Showers and thunderstorms would also likely
continue into the Friday overnight hours as the cold front moves
across the area.

By Saturday, we begin a long, quiet stretch of weather as high
pressure begins to build in. Mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues to build on Sunday and Monday, with the high
centered over the eastern Great Lakes by Monday morning. Generally
quiet weather with mostly clear/sunny skies expected Sunday through
Tuesday. Coldest temperatures of the forecast expected on Sunday
with highs in the low/mid 70s before we trend back upward to the
mid/upper 80s by Tuesday. Precipitation chances return on Wednesday
as a tropical system works its way north, eventually phasing with an
upper-level trough moving from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected at most locations through the
night. However we will need to monitor convection moving toward
the region from Indiana overnight. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible after midnight through sunrise.
Outflow boundaries may keep pockets of convection going into
Thursday afternoon, especially near and south of a line from
KMNN to KGKJ. The only non-VFR conditions would be near the
thunderstorms.

West to northwest winds overnight will become light after
sunset. Light south to southwest winds are expected across
inland locations on Thursday. However the development of a lake
breeze will provide an onshore flow at KERI and maybe KCLE
during the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Friday night with a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds of around 15 knots this afternoon are expected to
rapidly decrease this evening and tonight as a cold front moves
south of Lake Erie and settles over the Ohio Valley as a stationary
front. This stationary front is expected to disperse by Thursday
night. Rather calm conditions expected on Lake Erie through at least
Thursday night. Winds could increase out of the southwest on Friday
before weakening again after the passage of a cold front on Friday
night. Winds shift to generally out of the north on Saturday as high
pressure builds in for the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/MM
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Saunders