Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 031128
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Tuesday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Weak surface boundary is slowly settling south through Iowa early
this morning and is currently near a Waterloo to Ames to Omaha line
while an outflow boundary has progressed a bit farther south towards
the Des Moines metro before washing out. There remains convective
instability in the vicinity of the boundary with MLCAPE values near
1500 J/kg and MUCAPEs near 2000 J/kg. That said, dry air in the is
more pronounced in the 850-700 mb range, therefore, current storms
that have been develop in vicinity of the boundary are likely
elevated above this layer and not realizing all of the available
instability. Still have had a few stronger updrafts in the
Grundy/Black Hawk county area and another in Dallas and Polk. These
stronger updrafts are expected to move east of the area soon.
Redevelopment of storms is possible over the far south yet this
morning but the activity will move south into Missouri as the
boundary passes through before stalling. The remainder of the day
will be dry with temperatures not quite as warm as Tuesday with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Storms will develop across Nebraska
this evening and may reach western Iowa overnight. Greater chances
are any MCS will move south along the instability gradient and into
Missouri.

Height rises will begin Thursday as the western ridge begins to
surge back north and will bring theta-e advection back into the
state late in the day and overnight. While the boundary layer will
become unstable Thursday afternoon with little convective
inhibition, the lack of a forcing mechanism will limit thunderstorms
development until the evening as the low level jet becomes
established. A few storms may be severe over western Iowa with large
hail and damaging winds. Some uncertainty on Friday regarding
strength of the elevated mixed layer (EML) and subsequent capping
but overall, much of the area will remained capped after any remnant
morning convection.

The upper ridge will become fully established on Saturday with a few
thunderstorms again Friday night as the warm/theta-e advection lifts
though. While temperatures won`t change much with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s, higher dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 will
result in more humidity. Early next week the ridge passing east with
the remnants of tropical storm Cristobal lifting north on the
backside of the ridge and ahead of a long wave trough. While some
long range guidance has the remnants of Cristobal reaching Iowa,
climatology would suggest the chance of this occurring to be low and
the long wave trough will push it southeast of the state.
Regardless, thunderstorm chances will return as the trough arrives
around Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning/
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

A few thunderstorms vicinity of KOTM early in the period and local
fog near KMCW. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected much of the
period. Light northerly wind today become light and variable
tonight. Possible some local fog again late.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon


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