Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
350 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/
/Today and Tonight/

The primary impact over the next couple of days will be the heat.
Sustained southerly flow in the low levels and rising mid level
heights are helping keep temperatures around 10 degrees above
normal through the end of the work week. Typically these warmer
than average periods are accompanied by a drier airmass, but that
is not the case this week. Dew points are remaining in the low
70s, which are creating Heat Indices in the low 100s during peak
heating. Another factor making it feel even hotter is the lack of
a good afternoon breeze. A deeply mixed boundary layer and the
apex of a surface ridge just to our south are keeping the mid
afternoon winds at or below 10 mph for most locations.

Rain-free weather and mostly clear skies are forecast the next 2
days, however, there are a couple weather features we need to keep
an eye on. The first is remnant outflow currently moving into far
Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. As the boundary continues
south, it is moving into a relatively unstable airmass with
MLCAPE values ~2000 J/Kg. There is a definitive lack of confluence
along the leading edge of this boundary west of the ~OK/AR
border, and therefore convection is much more isolated and
updrafts are having a hard time organizing along the western
fringes of the boundary. As such, there is no mention of any
sensible weather within our forecast area, only a non-mentionable
5-10 PoP this afternoon for the areas east of US-69.

The second area to watch is to our west this afternoon and tonight.
A cluster of high based thunderstorms should develop near the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon and northwesterly flow
aloft should move these storms toward North Texas late this
afternoon and evening. They should begin to encroach on our far
northwestern counties near or shortly after sunset. Convective
inhibition will sharply increase around this time and force the
storms to become increasingly cold-pool dominate. A few strong
updraft pules are possible along the leading edge of the outflow
for a few hours, but most--to all--of the thunderstorm activity
should come to an end before reaching the DFW area. The most
likely areas to receive any rain or thunderstorms tonight are
north of state highway 114 and west of I-35...although a brief
light rain shower or rumble of thunder is possible as far south as
I-20 late tonight.



/Friday Night Onward/

Only minor changes from the previous forecast needed. A prolonged
period of warmer than average temperatures will continue to be
advertised as strong mid level ridging takes residence over the
Southern Plains through the weekend. A brief and very limited
reprieve from the heat is possible for our far eastern counties as
the tropical system in the Gulf is expected to move onshore early
next week and increase rain chances across East Texas.

Mid level ridging building in across the Southern Plains will keep
the region dry and hot through the weekend. High temperatures will
soar into the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Additionally, shallow
residual moisture may result in heat indices in excess of 100
degrees across the region both Saturday and Sunday. With mostly
clear skies and southerly winds around 5-10 kt there will be
virtually no relief available from the heat. Anyone spending any
amount of time outdoors should make sure to exercise heat
precautions throughout the weekend.

The forecast track for Tropical Depression Cristobal, now in far
southern Mexico, continues to favor a landfall near Louisiana on
Sunday. While minimal direct impact to North and Central Texas is
anticipated, we continue to maintain 20-30% PoPs in our far
eastern counties as we could see an increase in rain chances as
the tropical system approaches the region Sunday night and Monday.
We will continue to closely monitor the evolution of Cristobal
through the weekend as any variation in the track will likely
necessitate further adjustments to the forecast.

We are also monitoring the potential for very hot temperatures on
Tuesday. The interaction between the subsidence left behind by
the remnant low of Cristobal and a dryline mixing eastward across
West Texas continues to support enhanced warming Tuesday
afternoon. The 12Z GFS advances a surface low and its associated
cold front across western North Texas early Tuesday disrupting
this compressional warming pattern prematurely. Alternatively, the
12Z ECMWF maintains a slower evolution allowing temperatures to
warm substantially throughout the afternoon. Without consensus on
the timing of this front we will forgo any significant adjustments
to the temperatures for Tuesday at this time. The eventual passage
of the front will allow drier air to filter into the region and
temper temperatures through the end of the week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns: Convection this evening and tonight potentially affecting
the Bowie arrival gate.

VFR and southerly winds around 10 kts are expected to prevail
through the valid TAF period with one potential exception. A
cluster of thunderstorms should develop over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon and move southeast through the evening. These
storms may encroach on the Bowie arrival gate as early as 01-03Z
then dissipate by 06-08Z. An outflow may advance well ahead of
the dissipating storms, with a 10-20% chance of creating a brief
northerly wind shift at the western D10 terminals in the early
morning hours. If the winds do shift, they should return to
southerly within 1 to 2 hours.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  98  75  97  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  94  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  93  72  93  73 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              74  97  73  96  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  98  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  95  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  93  74  94  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  93  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  97  71  96  71 /  10   5   0   0   0




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