767
FXUS63 KICT 041125
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of central and
  eastern Kansas this morning.

- Additional showers with embedded thunderstorm chances over
  mainly southern and southeast Kansas late tonight night into
  Sunday.

- An outbreak of severe weather on Monday afternoon and Monday
  evening.

- Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms rolling eastward off the high plains
continue to impact parts of central and eastern central Kansas
early this morning. This activity is expected to fade as the LLJ
weakens and veers during the morning hours. Seasonably cool air
will overspread the area in the wake of a cold front with highs
mostly in the 60s this afternoon.

After a brief lull, another shortwave trough is progged to lift out
of the Southern Plains bringing increasing chances for showers
beginning during the predawn hours on Sunday. The NAM is much
further north without much support from the other short range
models but some modest pops were maintained into the day on
Sunday. Limited insolation and a subtle increase in low level
moisture may keep some areas from reaching 70 while seasonable
values are expected in most areas with highs around 70. Strong
or severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

As we move into Monday, a vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to
move out of the Rockies emerging negatively tilted over the Central
and Northern Plains late on Monday. Conditions continue to look
favorable for a severe weather outbreak on Monday afternoon and
Monday evening across the forecast area. The EPS/GEFS continue to
advertise a vigorous upper jet nosing into Kansas late Monday with
dewpoints near 70 progged in the warm sector. Shear/buoyancy
profiles continue to support severe thunderstorms, some of which
could be significant including supercells with very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes in the afternoon and evening hours
along and east of the dryline impacting much if not all of our
forecast area.

Tue-Fri...The large-scale pattern continues to favor relatively
tranquil weather after Monday across the region. A mean larger-scale
trough is progged to remain situated across the northern tier
stretching from the Northern plains eastward across the Upper
Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes area keeping dry weather
in place over the Central Plains. Above normal temperatures
early in the week will cool with near normal conditions
anticipated towards the end of the period. Dry weather
conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Area of rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms will move
slowly eastward this morning, and looks to push east of the area
by early afternoon. Low clouds in the MVFR category will develop
and linger over the region this morning and should begin to
scatter out from west to east during the afternoon hours.
Northwest winds will switch to the northeast by tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ