Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261620
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1220 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually shift northeastward through mid-week
and allow waves of low pressure to move into the Carolinas
bringing periods of unsettled weather. A cold front may move
through the area this coming weekend bringing cooler and drier
weather early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Temperatures are lagging a bit this morning and adjusted the
curve slightly. Highs in the upper 70s to an 80 here and there
may be a bit optimistic but one or two breaks in the overcast
can alleviate these concerns quickly. No other changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure well off to the NE with
developing low pressure over FL. This weak low will gradually
shift N through the near term period, bringing increasing
chances for rain. Plenty of dry air in place through the column
will limit PoPs however today, with far southern areas up to
50% by late aftn and just 20% over northern areas. High temps in
the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Dry air tries to hold on a bit into this
evening, before better forcing and deep layer moisture arrive
from the S after midnight. There also now appears to be a small
chance for a damaging wind gust or tornado over SE areas late
tonight into Wed as a coastal trough slides into the area
accompanied by increasing low-level shear and helicity values.
Other main threat into Wed is potential for localized flooding
so will maintain mention in the HWO. There is still a fair
amount of spread in the QPF guidance and after collaboration
with neighbors will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain will likely continue Wednesday night as moisture plume
continues to feed into the area from the south. With the surface
wave washed out and the diurnal minimum of heating the heavy rain
convective signal in the WRF appears suspect and have chosen lighter
amounts. More rain on Thursday but inland areas likely favored
slightly as marine layer should offer some stability. Thursday night
will offer lesser rain chances in a relative sense though a rain-
free period is not expected. Extensive cloud cover will bring mild
nights while keeping Thursday nights just a few degrees shy of
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain chances ramp back up late in the week as surface front and mid
level low approach. The front comes through either Saturday or
Saturday night, possibly accompanied by a slightly more organized
line of deep convection (does not look like a severe weather setup
though). Some minor rain chances may persist into early Sunday but
then moderate cool and dry advection is expected-possibly leading to
a few nights with lows in the 50s across most of the area as a
relatively deep trough forms over the eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominately VFR this afternoon. Look for isolated light convection
this afternoon with the resultant pushing well inland due to the
onshore flow. Tonight, a tropical low will track northward and off
the coast. Deep moisture will be on the increase after midnight,
with heavy downpours possible along the coast around daybreak.
Wednesday, the tropical low will continue to track northward, coming
onshore around the Myrtles at the end of the forecast period.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather may continue Wednesday Night
through Sunday with periods of short-lived MVFR/IFR conditions
expected in convective showers and t-storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow continues today into Wed with sfc high pressure off
to the NE and low pressure approaching from the S. Trend will be
for gradually increasing winds and seas, and have hoisted a
Small Craft Advisory starting early Wed morning when seas will
near 6 ft and gusts up to ~25 kt are expected. These conditions
will continue through at least late Wed aftn, and future shifts
may need to extend the headline as necessary.

Low pressure inland weakens to an open trough Wednesday night
leaving the main wind-maker the Atlantic high.  SE winds will drop
below advisory levels but the 6 ft seas should last a bit longer
keeping the flags in effect until perhaps daybreak Thursday. The
offshore high will continue to be the dominant player on Friday
though flow will turn to the S as weak pressure falls associated
with an approaching front impinge from the west. This boundary will
lead to another small veer to SW on Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/MBB



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