Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
545 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Scattered showers and storms will continue today, as Low pressure
inches closer to the Midwest. A slightly cooler day will be in
store, as clouds increase today. Precipitation will diminish
overnight, with another increase Thursday as diurnal heating
occurs. A cold front will finally slide through the Midwest
Thursday night into Friday, bringing an end to the warm and humid
conditions, as well as the daily precipitation. Cooler conditions
arrive for the weekend, with dry conditions expected to linger
through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Much of the same story, although early this morning, the upper Low
has shifted slightly south to the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. This
is continuing to bring showers to the mid-Mississippi River Valley
this morning. With light southerly winds remaining overhead,
moisture continues to be ushered into central Illinois, providing
isolated shower activity. Looking at satellite imagery this
morning, and for the forecast, seeing an increase in cloud
coverage this morning through the day. This increase will impact
the ability of diurnal heating across the region. Temperatures
today will be slightly cooler, as highs peak in the upper 70s to
low 80s. However, better chances of precipitation will occur
today, as the cut-off upper Low remains stationary throughout
today. The associated weak sfc Low will also remain stationary
today, providing sufficient lift of moisture into the region.

Overnight, not much movement in either Low so expecting showers to
continue. Expecting thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, but
with loss of daytime heating, will diminish overnight to just
shower activity.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Heading into Thursday, cooler temps will continue as more clouds
build overhead. The cut-off upper Low will finally start a slow
eastward progression Thursday into Friday. The northern stream
system in Canada will finally drape a cold frontal boundary into
the central Plains and swing through the Midwest. This frontal
boundary will move the stacked Low pressure system that has
brought about the continuance of precipitation throughout this
week, along with the warm and humid temperatures. As the cold
front swings through late Thursday night into Friday, the boundary
will ingest the weakening stacked Low pressure system. Showers and
storms will be expected along the frontal boundary, and ahead of
fropa Thursday afternoon and evening. This system slides out of
the region during the morning Friday, setting up a cooler end to
the week, with clouds decreasing through the day.

Moving into the weekend, a much different story around the Midwest
with dry conditions forecast...however, temperatures will be much
cooler as highs will peak it the low 70s. High pressure will be
ridging across the central Plains into the Midwest for the
weekend, bringing the drier conditions. Will have to monitor the
possibility of very light shower activity Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. Will have a weakening vort wave dropping
into the region from the upper Midwest, however the High pressure
overhead should hold off any precipitation.

Looking forward to the first part of next week, the High pressure
ridge enhances...which will continue the dry weather pattern
across the Midwest. This ridge enhancement will also bring about
the return of WAA across much of the eastern Plains and Midwest
during the first half of next week. Temperatures will quickly
rebound back into the 80s Tuesday, with 80s lingering through


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Mostly VFR conditions will begin at terminals across central
Illinois, with some ceilings bouncing to MVFR. Ceilings drop to
MVFR through the morning, however VFR is expected to linger at CMI
into the afternoon. As the Low pressure system amplifies today,
expecting -SHRA to spread across the region from sw to ne.
Continued VCTS trend this afternoon, for isolated diurnal heating
TS expected. Winds also increase from the sse late morning and
afternoon with diurnal sfc heating. Expect precip activity to
decrease again overnight, however ceilings will drop to low MVFR
approaching IFR by the end of the TAF period.




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