Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 050113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
913 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Issued at 910 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Any isolated showers across south central Michigan into northwest
Ohio will dissipate during the early portions of the overnight
hours. Otherwise, clouds will decrease from west to east tonight.
Slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive
Friday afternoon. This weekend looks to be cooler and less humid.


Issued at 909 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Lingering weak sfc trough across southern Lower Michigan continues
to be a focal point for isolated showers this evening, likely
aided by weak mid level trough tracking across the region. Surface
based CIN will slowly build over next few hours which should
result in dissipating low probs for isold showers across south
central Lower MI/northwest OH. Not completely out of the question
some patchy shallow fog could develop across portions of the area
late tonight into early Friday, but confidence in occurrence and
likely limited impacts precludes a mention at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

High clouds have hampered diurnal climb in temps thus far, but
pockets of clearing areas starting to allow readings in the upper
70s to lower 80s. However, these pockets, along with subtle areas of
weak convergence had allowed cu fields to pop in several spots. Most
pronounced convergence in the form of a lake breeze across portions
of LaPorte and Berrien county, which allowed for quick but isolated
development. A weak disturbance will pass through this afternoon and
may aid in development across the area.  This will help shear a
touch with 20 to maybe 25 kts of effective shear arriving to help
storms last a bit longer. However, cu field was rapidly dissipating
across the area and only a stray shower or 2 at this point.
Shortwave could still stir things up closer to 00Z but have lowered
pops to mainly slight chance given recent trends and HRRR/RAP

Cold front will move into the area by Friday afternoon with chance
for showers and storms along it. Models have backed off quite a bit
on coverage of convection with general consensus to lower pops to
lower end chc at this point.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

High pressure will build in to bring slightly cooler, but much
less humid conditions into early next week. Upper level ridge will
build back in by Tuesday with heat and humidity returning for at
least 1 day. Models all over the place on handling of remnants of
Cristobal but enough signals to maintain blended mid range chc


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Convection has been spotty this afternoon and focused mainly along
stalled sfc trough from north central Illinois into southern Lower
Michigan. Locally enhanced convergence with lake breeze
contribution has allowed for a longer lived thunderstorm across
northwest Indiana, although convection along this lake breeze
boundary is expected to diminish over the next hour or two as low
levels stabilize. Best chance for any additional showers through
early evening should avoid terminals with a few showers possibly
developing into northwest Ohio as upper disturbance lifts
northeast from central Indiana. Otherwise, quiet tonight with west
to east thinning of high clouds. Cannot discount some patchy
shallow fog across northeast Indiana but confidence is too low to
include with the 00Z TAFs.

Cold front will approach for Friday but instability magnitude
somewhat in question as some subtle mid level warming in advance
of front may temper instability a bit. Perhaps best chance for
isolated storms could be at KSBN where cold front may reinforce
weak lake breeze boundary for a time late Friday afternoon. Will
keep TAFs dry at this point given instability uncertainty and
lower confidence in timing smaller scale short waves emanating
from upstream convection tonight.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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