Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 040535 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion


06Z TAF discussion:
With convection winding down across the area, a mix of MVFR/IFR
flight categories are still anticipated across at most TAF sites
overnight, as low stratus develops across the area.  Across
Southeast Mississippi, patchy fog could also result in a periodic
degradation of visibilties to at least MVFR status early Thursday
morning.  Both the patchy fog and low stratus will begin eroding
after sunrise.  VFR categories are expected to prevail at sites
through the afternoon, before scattered convection yet again plagues
the area from mid-afternoon through early evening.  Winds tonight
will be ligt to calm, but will increase to between 5-10 knots from
the southwest late this morning, into the afternoon. /19/


Showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north of the Natchez
Trace Corridor, are beginning to dissipate this evening and this
will continue over the next couple of hours. Most of the activity
will diminish before midnight, with partly to mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s across the
area. /15/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and tomorrow...

Unsettled weather will continue showers and thunderstorms through
the evening and again tomorrow as the weather pattern remains warm
and moisture laden over the region. Diurnally enhanced showers
and thunderstorms will slowly weaken and become less widespread later
on this evening, though continued shower development will be
possible sporadically through the evening. Precip chances return
again tomorrow...increasing in coverage through the afternoon
hours. A general risk of diurnal convection will get an assist
from the remnants of an MCS that moves into the mid Miss River
Valley tomorrow afternoon. A marginal risk for severe storms
exists mainly for northern MS and southeastern AR...with the main
threat being gusty winds and large hail. Overnight tonight, plenty
of cloud cover and muggy air will keep the early morning lows in
the upper 60s/lower 70s. Tomorrow, high temperatures will climb
into the upper 80s for much of MS...and lower 90s west of the Miss
River and in portions of the Delta north of I-20.

Tomorrow night through Wednesday...

The forecast starts off tomorrow night with a belt of northern
stream westerlies across the Northern Plains with a southern stream
closed low off the California coast and a mid-level ridge over far
northern Mexico. Weak troughing will be in place across the southern
states with Tropical Storm Cristobal meandering over the Yucatan
Peninsula well to our south. A few showers and storms may be ongoing
at the start of tomorrow night, but will quickly wane through the
evening hours with loss of daytime heating. Another round of
diurnally driven showers and storms is expected on Friday with warm
afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.

Attention quickly turns to Tropical Storm Cristobal as we head into
the weekend. Cristobal will finally start making northward progress
on Friday and will be nearing the northern Gulf coast on Sunday
morning. The aforementioned closed low off the California coast is
progged to evolve into an open wave as it moves onshore and phases
with a larger northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest. At
the same time, the mid-level ridge will shift northeast and become
centered over the Middle Mississippi River Valley. Uncertainty still
exists with regards to eventual track and any impacts to the
ArkLaMiss region. Current global guidance indicates a brief slow
down in forward motion owing to the ridge before the tropical storm
slides northwest and into a weakness between the departing ridge and
shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies. Confidence is also low
with respect to intensity as the system will be fighting vertical
wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, tropical
moisture will begin to overspread southern portions of the area on
Saturday with the greatest rain chances and coverage Sunday through
Tuesday. It is still too early to try and iron out any impacts due
to the inherent uncertainty in both track and intensity, but at
least a localized flooding threat appears possible. /TW/


Jackson       68  87  72  90 /  19  61  12  49
Meridian      67  87  71  90 /  12  63  16  49
Vicksburg     70  89  74  91 /  30  56  10  42
Hattiesburg   68  87  71  90 /  14  52  11  54
Natchez       68  87  73  89 /  22  50   7  42
Greenville    71  89  73  91 /  24  57  16  35
Greenwood     70  88  73  91 /  20  63  18  42





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