


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
632 FXUS62 KJAX 151739 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Disorganized low pressure moving westward across Florida will continue to bring showers and gusty winds onshore the Northeast Florida coast today, as the low moves westward across the Florida Peninsula. This system in company with the east coast sea breeze will bring plenty of tropical moisture across Florida, sparking up numerous showers and storms this afternoon south of I-10. There is a Flood Watch in effect for Marion, Putnam, and inland Flagler counties through 8pm tonight, where the heaviest rainfall totals are expected. Over southeast Georgia, less storm coverage is expected due to less moisture, although scattered showers and storms are forecast. Convection will linger over the local waters, potentially reaching the immediate coast after sunset, with most inland areas clearing up around 8-9pm. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Low pressure shifts out into the Gulf Wednesday, pulling in lots of moisture in over the area. Scattered showers likely in the morning with the higher chances near I-75. Chances will increase into the afternoon as temperatures increase and sea-breezes begin to move inland with isolated storms and heavy rainfall possible. Winds out of the southeast will cause sea-breezes to converge along and near the 301 corridor. High daytime temperatures will be in the low 90s over inland areas of southeast Georgia with temperatures in the upper 80s along the coast. Northeast Florida will see daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Showers and storms may linger into the late evening hours, especially west of I-75. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, staying slightly warmer along the coast. Thursday, high surface pressure pushes in and will help to lower precip chances marginally over the area. scattered rain chances are expected in the morning over inland areas and along northeast Florida`s coast, increasing in intensity and coverage into the afternoon. Highest chances for rain and storms will be between I-75 and the 301 corridor where sea-breezes converge. Daytime high temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs in the low to mid 90s over southeast Georgia with temperatures mostly in the low 90s over northeast Florida. Coverage will begin to taper back after sunset with a few showers and storms still possible into the late evening hours. overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s at inland areas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 High pressure builds further inland from the east and sticks around through the end of the period. Despite the high pressure, ample moisture over the area and warm temperatures will continue the afternoon rain and thunderstorm trend as sea-breezes push inland. Temperatures will slowly increase into the weekend with temperatures above the seasonal average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Showers and storms will begin to impact the Florida sites over the next few hours, lasting through the evening. Low ceilings will likely impact the Florida sites through around midnight, except for GNV which will last a bit longer into the night. Gusty winds associated with the low pressure moving westward across the Florida peninsula will persist through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A weak area of low pressure over the Gulf Stream off the Florida East Coast will begin to shift westward this morning. An increase in showers and thunderstorms coverage is expected Today as the low shifts westward across the Florida peninsula tonight and into the eastern Gulf on Wednesday. Prevailing northeasterly winds Today will shift to southerly by tonight as the low shifts west of our local waters, with south-southeasterly winds briefly strengthening to Caution levels this afternoon and continuing tonight and Wednesday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late in the week as southerly winds prevail. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and tomorrow at the local beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 92 74 95 / 20 50 10 50 SSI 79 88 79 89 / 10 30 10 30 JAX 75 93 76 94 / 30 50 10 60 SGJ 75 91 76 91 / 30 60 10 70 GNV 73 92 74 94 / 50 80 20 80 OCF 73 91 74 92 / 50 80 20 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-137-140-237- 240-340. GA...None. AM...None. && $$