Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 282337
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a closed low over
western Arkansas with a trough extending south into northwestern
portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Further north, a strong shortwave
was located along the Manitoba/Ontario border with a trough
extending south into northeastern South Dakota. West of these
features, ridging extended north from southern Nevada into the
Idaho Panhandle. West of the ridge, wv imagery indicates a tandem
of lows, one over the Gulf of Alaska and a second off the coast of
Baja California. At the surface, low pressure was located over
northeastern Iowa with a cold front extending southwest into
southeastern Kansas. Another cold front was nosing into North
Dakota and northern Minnesota this afternoon. Some mid level
moisture was present off to the northwest of the area today with
clouds noted from the Black Hills into the Nebraska Panhandle.
Winds this afternoon were generally from the north or northeast at
10 to 20 MPH. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy and 2 PM
temperatures were generally in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Am expecting a fairly quiet night across the forecast area as an
axis of high pressure builds in from the Dakotas. This will lead
to clear skies and cool temps with lows mainly in the mid 40s in
northern Nebraska to around 50 in the southwest. Overnight tonight
into Friday morning, a warm front will from the panhandle into
western portions of the forecast area as the axis of high pressure
slides east into the mid Missouri River valley. As this front
progresses east Friday morning, there will be increased mid level
moisture from north central into south central Nebraska INVOF a H7
warm front. Went ahead and inserted some sprinkles in the
forecast Friday morning through midday in the central and portions
of the eastern forecast area where H7 WAA is strongest. Not
expecting much in the way of measurable pcpn though as RH is dry
from the surface to H7, thus the sprinkle mention. Highs Friday
will range from around 70 in the northeastern forecast area where
cloud cover will be more prevalent, to around 80 in the far
southwestern forecast area. The mid level front will remain
anchored across the northeastern half of the forecast area Friday
night. An area of mid level frontogenesis will increase from NW
Nebraska into central Nebraska overnight Friday night. This area
of mid level frontogenesis will be enhanced by the exit region of
an H250 jet streak overnight. ATTM, the best chances for
precipitation exist from NW into east and southeastern portions of
the forecast area with the southwest remaining in a void for
lift.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Ridging will build into the forecast area from the west Saturday
night into Tuesday. This will lead to a relatively dry and very
warm forecast. Am a little concerned Saturday night about a small
threat for storms in the far west and far southwestern forecast
area. The latest NAM12 soln, forces a shortwave through the ridge
developing convection across eastern Colorado Sat.
afternoon/evening. The NAM12 tries to lift showers and storms into
western Kansas/SW Nebraska overnight Saturday night. The NBM does
have a mention of slight chance pops in the far southwest
Saturday night and this seems plausible given the latest NAM soln.
Looking beyond Tuesday, both the ECMWF and GFS solns this morning
are trending toward the ridge breaking down somewhat Wednesday
night into Thursday. This is different from last night`s runs
which had high pressure anchored across the southern and central
Plains, well into the end of next week. The latest forecast will
be trended toward the new GFS and ECMWF solns with some pops added
to the forecast late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Quiet weather is expected for both terminals over the next day with
VFR conditions will persisting. Increasing clouds are expected early
Friday morning lasting into the afternoon, but ceilings will remain
above 6000 feet. Winds remain under 12 knots at both terminals
through Friday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik



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