Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 042204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
304 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2020

One more day of dry hot weather, although local thunderstorms
will occur. A strong cold brings showers with embedded
thunderstorms and much cooler temperatures this weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night.
Deformation axis along the northern Nevada border may spark
isolated storms early this evening over the northwest corner. East
central NV is another area for isolated storms where marginal
instability exists.

Mid level flow increases Friday as offshore SoCal closed low
lifts north northeast. Deep layered mixing leads to gusty winds
reaching 40 mph. Gusts do have the potential to reach wind
advisory criteria but the confidence is too low. A thin ribbon of
thunderstorms may form from northern Nevada and trailing back to
west central part of the state. This aligns with weak convergence
ahead of deepening Pacific trough and the SoCal circulation
ejecting toward the lower Colorado River basin. The main front
ahead of Pacific trough reaches the northwest corner Friday late
afternoon, and sweeps eastward Saturday and reaches the eastern
border by early evening. Humidity rises behind the front bringing
showers with embedded thunderstorms, chance of showers and storms
extends all the way to Tonopah. Extensive cloud cover and showers
mean much cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 70s, but
would not be surprised if the highs were lower if widespread
showers should cool the air mass.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday

Synoptic Overview:

Overnight Saturday, a cut-off low moves ashore over Oregon and
Washington, tracking eastward. This is when the cold front swings
through to bring us cold air, some winds, and light rain/snow showers.
Currently, it looks like rain should be the precipitation type in the
valleys on Sunday, while mountains may receive a very small
accumulation of snow. While this frontal boundary is out of the area
on Monday morning, a light shower or two may linger behind it.
If that turns out to be the case, that may mean light snow showers for
the valleys in northeastern NV.

The trough is expected to push out of our region late Monday/Tuesday
morning, allowing for a weak ridge to build in. This should keep weather
conditions quiet through Thursday morning as the ridge amplifies just
east of us. The next trough digs into the Pacific coast during the day
Thursday, bringing a chance of some showers later that evening.


Confidence is fairly high with regards to the active nature of the
pattern, as well as the short-lived break from it that is expected to
follow. Confidence in precipitation totals is only medium right now,
just because ensemble spreads are still larger than we would like a
few days out.

Sensible Weather:


Widespread rain/snow showers linger in our region while the cold
front passes through. At this time, how the precipitation type changes
is a little fuzzy. Very early Sunday, valleys may see rain while higher
elevations in the mountains see light snow. This should continue for
the day, but come overnight Sunday into Monday morning, snow may
make it to the valley floors but accumulations would be minimal, if any.
Liquid precipitation totals look like theyll total up somewhere between
a tenth to one half of an inch.


Expect gusty winds associated with the cold front on Sunday. For the
rest of the week, daytime winds may be a little breezy, but should calm
down during the overnight hours.


Afternoon highs in the 40s and 50s on Sunday and Monday are
well below the climatological norm of 70s and 80s. Overnight lows
may reach freezing both nights. Temperatures begin to rebound back
into the 70s and 80s through the midweek, while overnight lows
climb to the 40s and 50s.


VFR prevails, although isolated convection may form in the
mountains near KELY, but the probability is low for thunderstorms
near Ely. Density altitudes remain high for one more day.


Critical fire weather conditions develop ahead of a strong Pacific
trough. With deep mixing and downward transport, gusty winds
reaching 40 mph will be common, particularly zone 425. Combined
with low humidity values, Red Flag warning conditions will be
reached Friday afternoon. On Saturday, gusty winds occur ahead of
a surface front but higher humidity values and lower daytime
temperatures reduce fire hazards.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Eastern Elko
County-White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties.



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