Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 030536 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

VFR conditions in place all three TAF sites. Expect this to
continue through the next 24 hours at KPVW and KCDS but there
remains a possibility of MVFR ceilings at KLBB around sunrise
Wednesday. Any ceilings will be short lived however and return to
VFR conditions before mid-day. Next issue is possibility of
thunderstorms at KLBB and KPVW late this afternoon into early
evening. Confidence in timing and coverage is too low to include
at this time and will need to evaluate through the morning to see
if later TAF issuances will need to include TS.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 908 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

We have added a mention of thunder chances across the extreme
southwest Texas Panhandle late this evening, mainly the western
part of Parmer County. Outflows from fairly widespread activity
in northeast New Mexico were spreading to the southeast ahead of
lingering significant storms that were within about 50 miles of
the Texas border. Smaller showers were forming just in advance of
the outflow, a few miles from the state line. Solutions continue
to weaken and mostly end these showers by late this evening but it
is apparent a few may cross over into at least Parmer County
before that occurs. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

Airmass will destabilize normally this evening. Earlier small
shower cluster east of KPVW and west of KCDS along the edge of the
Caprock has dissipated. Other activity coming off the Raton Mesa
and Sangre De Cristo Range in northeast New Mexico appears fairly
widespread but not intense in modest northwest flow aloft, and
is expected to dissipate far northwest of terminals this evening.
Low clouds are expected to develop not far south of KLBB early
Wednesday morning, though solutions are fairly consistent keeping
this layer to the south. We have added FEW015 from 12Z to 15Z
Wednesday for KLBB to indicate the proximity to the airport. Late
Wednesday afternoon, solutions are in fair agreement indicating
clusters of high-based showers and thunderstorms in the region,
though confidence in this activity approaching the terminals is
too small to include this forecast. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 103 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

A mid-level vorticity lobe was analyzed on water vapor imagery today
as it slowly pivots over the Red River Valley. This has resulted in
downward subsidence on the western periphery of the lobe, evident by
the suppression of vertical development along the cloud streets
streaming across West Texas. Temperatures are expected to reach the
upper 80s for most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains this afternoon
with a prevailing southerly wind. Fair weather is forecast for the
remainder of the day while low-level moisture remains rooted across
the region owing to the poleward flow beneath the weak background
flow regime.

The ridge axis, now centered over the Four Corners, will gradually
progress east into Wednesday. Predominately weak, low-level flow
will persist beneath despite the advection of fairly moderate
boundary-layer moisture characterized by 100 mb mean mixing ratios
of around ~11-13 g/kg and a plume of PWATs exceeding the 99th
percentile (as per SPC Sounding Climatology from the AMA and MAF
RAOB sites at 04/00Z). High-level flow will gradually increase
tomorrow afternoon along the downstream portion of the ridge axis
and the combination of deep, vertical mixing from strong heating
will result in an uncapped environment with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1,500 J/kg area-wide.

Isolated convective development will be possible tomorrow afternoon
across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, and the northern South
and Rolling Plains. Weak, vertical shear (i.e. compact hodographs)
will favor a multi-cellular storm character with inverted-V profiles
beneath cloud base. Storms should have a relatively short residence
time owing to the meager forcing from the associated shortwave
perturbation and weak deep-layer flow; however, the strongest storms
will have the potential to produce strong downdrafts and small hail.
Due to high LCLs at around 3 km AGL, strong, negative theta
perturbations from cold outflow(s) will result in cold pools to
consolidate quickly after convective initiation. A mean storm
movement of around 330/25 kt (e.g. north-northwest at around 30 mph)
is forecast after storms mature. Any complex of storms that do
organize in the afternoon should collapse after sunset due to the
nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer and loss of diurnal


Thursday`s setup will be quite similar to Wednesday`s with upper
level ridging centered over New Mexico, weak northerly flow over the
forecast area, and the presence of an 850-700 mb theta-e ridge axis
and convergence of said theta-e that some models indicate could be
enough to initiate a few thunderstorms late in the day.

Beyond Thursday the forecast area will be under the direct influence
of upper level ridging, first as the expansive upper ridge over the
desert southwest shifts eastward in response to a stout upper low
off the coast of Baja California opening and lifting northeastward
across the Rockies, and then as a narrow but stationary upper ridge
sandwiched between a broad trough over the western CONUS and
tropical system Cristobal as it moves northward through the western
Gulf of Mexico the up through the western Gulf states early next
week. As a result a dry and very warm to hot forecast remains on
track with forecast temperatures near model blend and MOS looking
fine for now.




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