Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 031724
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1135 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

UPDATE...

Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery shows a shortwave over the
Mississippi Delta. On the western edge of the disturbance isolated
showers and thunderstorms have begun to form, mainly over eastern
Arkansas. As this wave treks slowly eastward this afternoon,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across
eastern Arkansas, north Mississippi, and southwest Tennessee.
Expect highs to reach the upper 80s this afternoon with increasing
cloud cover areawide.

By this evening, upper level flow will shift more northwesterly and
possibly steer an MCS into the Mid-South overnight. Latest Hi-
res models continue to advertise this scenario with timing mainly
after midnight tonight, but as late as tomorrow afternoon. Timing
and location are still a bit unclear, due to the traversing wave
and model disagreement. Will continue to monitor model trends
this afternoon for better guidance.

Forecast looks good with no major changes needed at this time.

AC3

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

UPDATE...
Aviation Update Below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...Upper ridging covers the southern U.S. with a series
of embedded weak upper level disturbances over the southern
plains. The disturbance over AR can be seen in the IR imagery and
it is producing a few showers over parts of east AR and NW MS.
Temps range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with a good deal of
mid/high clouds covering the region.

Today...Airmass across the region continues to moisten and become
more humid. Expect the weak upper disturbance over AR to drift
over the Mid-South this afternoon providing some focus for
convection. Best chances for thunderstorms will be across north MS
and east AR where instability will be greatest. Expect highs
generally in the upper 80s due to more cloud cover though a few
90s are certainly possible depending on the amount of sun.

Tonight...Several CAMs are depicting a MCS developing north of the
region and moving into the Mid-South overnight. Solutions vary
widely but seems reasonable to assume that some activity will
drop into the region in the weak NW flow aloft.

Thursday...At this point trying to predict these mesoscale
features gets really dicey. If a MCS does move into the region
tonight expect convection to develop along whatever boundary is
leftover on Thursday. Additional weak upper level disturbances in
the NW flow aloft should aid development. As humidity increases
with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s expect SBCAPE values to
climb greater than 2500 j/kg Thursday afternoon south of wherever
the outflow boundary sets up. A few strong to severe storms are
possible Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Upper ridge strengthens over the Mid-South
which will result in the decrease of rain chances and temps
climbing into the lower 90s. Heat index values will climb to the
upper 90s. Meanwhile Cristobal is expected to make landfall along
the Gulf Coast Sunday evening.

Monday through Tuesday...Increasingly wet is a good bet as the
remnants of Cristobal will likely move through the region.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF

Rain and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next 24-30 hours as a weak trough develops over the Midsouth.
Winds will remain from the South to Southwest 5-10kt through the
period and should help to limit fog overnight. Brief diminished
vis and gusty wind can be expected in association with
thunderstorms.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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