


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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770 FXUS66 KMFR 151021 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 321 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .DISCUSSION...Hot weather will be the main weather headline through the middle of this week. There is also a low chance (~10-15%) of thunderstorms across portions of NorCal and perhaps into Lake County at times, but overall, a dry forecast will persist over the next week. Fairly typical afternoon/evening breezes are expected over the interior, though a trough this weekend could bring locally breezier conditions on Saturday. While we usually associate our biggest heat waves with persistent upper ridging along the West Coast, this one is a bit different with the axis of the upper ridge mostly out over the ocean, but also to our south over the Four Corners. There is a weakness in the ridge over us, but this is still allowing us to get quite hot. We`ve had 3 consecutive 100+ days here in Medford. We`ll get close to triple digits again today (NBM is showing 99F, though there`s a 1 in 4 chance for 100F or above). The hottest day will likely be Wednesday with 90% of model solutions showing high temps greater than 100F). Official forecast is for 103F. For these reasons, we have a heat advisory for most of our west side valleys. We also looked into the possibility of a heat advisory over the east side, but temps the next couple of days, while warm, don`t rise to levels that pose more than a low to moderate heat risk. Generally, highs over there will be in the low to perhaps mid 90s (again, highest on Wednesday). So, we`ve opted to forgo an advisory there. We expect some instability just due to surface heating each of the next few afternoons. As such, we`ll likely see a few cumulus buildups, especially in the mountains of NorCal and up into the Cascades and over the East Side. Moisture is limited even moreso than it was yesterday and forcing is weak, so we`re not too concerned about a significant lightning outbreak. But, there is a low chance, generally a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms in those areas through Thursday (best chance in NorCal). Late this week, but especially this weekend, models are showing a bit stronger trough swinging through. While this is unlikely to result in any significant precipitation, it should take the edge off the heat for at least a little while. Models are showing temperatures dropping back closer to normal levels (low to mid 90s Medford and in the mid to upper 80s at KFalls). It may induce a bit breezier conditions, especially Saturday, so that could pose a risk for spread of any wildfires out on the landscape. -Spilde && .AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...Marine layer will be confined to the coastal waters and portions of northern Curry and Coos counties this morning. Stratus has been mostly south of North Bend, but we`re still allowing it to fill in there by morning. Expect most to burn back to the immediate coast or just over the coastal waters this afternoon. Gusty north winds redevelop this afternoon. Inland, VFR will prevail the next 24 hours, though some locations will have reduced visibility due to wildfire smoke and/or haze. This is most likely in the immediate vicinity and downwind of the most persistent fires. Overall, afternoon/evening breezes should be fairly typical of mid-summer. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Tuesday, July 15, 2025...The thermal trough pattern will continue through Wednesday. This will maintain strong north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas across all waters. Gales are expected in the afternoons/evenings mainly south of Port Orford and beyond 5 nm from shore. Conditions will begin to improve around mid-week as we transition away from wind- driven seas. However, steep seas will be found in all areas Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. -Spilde && .FIRE WEATHER...Main fire weather risks today are the hot, dry weather. There is a low chance (10-15%) of thunderstorms too, mainly in NorCal, but we`re not expecting more than a couple of pop-up cells. Overall, RH recovery has been moderate at best over the ridges this morning with some higher altitude RAWS only reporting 35-45% in the NorCal mountains. Some ENE winds have also been present at the usual suspect locations (Slater Butte, Quail Prairie and Onion Mtn) with peak gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Another afternoon of dry humidity with RHs bottoming out in the 15-20% range, though a few spots could fall below 15%. E winds probably show up again over the ridges tonight into Wednesday. The hot weather will continue through at least Wednesday, with some gradual "cooling" expected late week. With a weak trough pushing through this weekend, we may see temps get back closer to normal values, though this may be at the expense of some breezier conditions, especially Saturday afternoon/evening. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ023>026. CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080-081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ MAS/MAS/MAS