874
FXUS63 KMPX 031948
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this
evening through Saturday morning.

- Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer
temperatures expected Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed
temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a
few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a
little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface
pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the
west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated
thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but
showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening
through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday
afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been
picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one
from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern
MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5"
while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band
also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in
RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur
during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a
bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are
forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great
with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s)
but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we
progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong,
negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the
Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm
sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending
all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems
from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band
of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night
into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the
Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the
question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero
CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely
dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand
ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating,
widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance
of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds
should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS
ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve
climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains.

After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for
the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs
out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at
least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures
underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR for all terminals to start while a cold front sits atop
MN/WI. This front will become more active this evening through
tonight as a disturbance aloft drifts southeast from southern
Manitoba, helping spawn a swath of rain over the eastern Dakotas
and western MN this afternoon. This swath will then slowly move
east this evening through the overnight hours, bringing MVFR
ceilings and visibilities to all terminals gradually from west
to east. Chances for CB/TS are rather low, limited mainly to far
southern MN (thus KMKT), so have opted to not include its
mention in this set. Ceilings have the potential to drop to IFR
but confidence not high enough to go that route. Rainfall looks
to end around sunrise in western MN, by late morning in eastern
MN and early afternoon in western WI. Winds will be breezy from
the SW through this afternoon, then the progression of and
convergence around the front will dictate winds through tonight
before winds settle on northwesterly Saturday morning with
speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...Main issue through this afternoon will be breezy winds
from the 210-230 range, potentially causing crosswind concerns
for the parallel runways. Once past that issue, come later this
evening when winds become northerly, rain looks to move in
around 08z, potentially as early as 06z, and continuing through
daybreak. Chances fairly low for CB/TS at this point but will
continue to evaluate for inclusion later. Rainfall amounts look
to run 0.25"-0.50". Clearing then expected from late morning
onward with NW winds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
HYDROLOGY...CCS