026
FXUS66 KMTR 150141
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
641 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages with a
   more noticeable cooling trend beginning Tuesday.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the
   higher elevations.

 - Slight warming trend later this week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1207 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Visible satellite imagery is showing less cloud cover along the
coast then previously thought. This is as the marine layer is mixing
out thanks to southerly flow at the surface and more
westerly/northwesterly aloft. Afternoon temperatures will be similar
to those yesterday, upper 50s to lower 70s near the coast, 80s to
upper 80s just inland away from the coast, and 90s to near 100
degrees (very isolated in nature) in the far interior.

With the marine layer forecast to deepen tonight ahead of an
approaching mid/upper level trough, low clouds will spread back
inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Coastal drizzle is also
likely as we have seen the past few days during the late night and
early morning hours on Tuesday.

Once low clouds dissipate across inland areas, temperatures will be
some 5-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon in response to the
trough aloft. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s
to mid 80s inland and the upper 60s to the mid 70s along the
Bayshore, with the coast remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

From previous forecaster: "Localized elevated fire weather threat
continues across areas above and inland of the marine layer`s
influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 20-
35%, poor overnight recoveries of 25-40%, and localized gusts to 25
mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However,
the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat
being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter
winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night."

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025
(Tuesday night through Sunday)

A slight warming trend is expected heading towards the upcoming
weekend. Ensemble model cluster analysis does feature scenarios
where troughing and ridging develop over the northwestern United
States through the upcoming weekend. However, in terms of sensible
weather, most of the impacts from any deviation in the weather
pattern will be felt across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies, with muted impacts across central California. Although
the exact details are still subject to variation, the current
forecast sees temperatures across the inland valleys rising to the
80s and lower 90s, up to the upper 90s in the warmest locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Stratus and fog mixed out quickly earlier today. Currently it`s
IFR-LIFR in stratus and patchy fog along the coastline and VFR
inland. It`s a challenging forecast tonight and Tuesday since
lower level cool air advection will begin to weaken the lower
level temperature inversion, likely increasing the marine layer
depth later on tonight and Tuesday. Onshore winds will otherwise
usher stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ inland tonight and Tuesday
morning. Stratus mixes out to MVFR-VFR along the coastline, inland
VFR will prevail. HREF output then shows a stratus intrusion
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Northwest to west-northwest wind gradually easing
through mid to late evening. VFR continuing through mid evening
then tempo IFR 06z-10z then IFR prevailing until 18z Tuesday. The
ceiling may begin to lift to MVFR early Tuesday as lower level cool
air advection helps deepen the marine layer. Otherwise VFR is forecast
from late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening, possibly
remaining VFR through mid and late Tuesday evening in the vicinity
of SFO Airport.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Increasing stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/
tonight and Tuesday morning. Similar to the Bay Area, ceilings may
begin to lift to MVFR early Tuesday as lower level cool air
advection helps deepen the marine layer. Otherwise VFR is forecast
from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. West to
northwest winds 10 to 20 knots easing to mainly onshore 5 to 10
knots tonight and Tuesday morning. West to northwest winds
increasing to 10 to 20 knots Tuesday afternoon. Northwest wind
gusts to 25 knots in the Salinas Valley Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 606 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Localized hazardous marine conditions in the form of strong
northerly breezes and very rough seas will be present through
tomorrow for the northern outer waters. Aside from that, a gentle
to moderate breeze with moderate to rough seas will prevail
through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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