Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 032022
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
322 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Ongoing convection over nrn AR/portions of se MO seems to be
mainly diurnally driven, and with little dynamical support, other
than outflow boundary interaction, most of the SPC CAMS dissipate
this activity with sunset.

Weak east-west oriented frontal boundary over central IL this
afternoon will push slowly south toward the forecast area
tonight. Ongoing convection could become quite strong/isolated svr
with hail and damaging wind gusts late today and into the
evening north of our area. However, the storms will likely lose
some steam after that point, as they close in on our northern
counties in se MO/srn IL/sw IN later tonight. Cold pool dominated
system is forecast to push south into southern IL/IN after 06z
tonight, with storms diminishing and showers breaking up as they
approach the Ohio River. The risk for severe weather seems low
(but not zero) overnight due to diminishing instability and weak
deep layer shear.

What is left of the old surface frontal boundary will probably
wash out somewhere near the OH River on Thursday. Still, the
remnants of it could help to focus some shower/thunderstorm
activity, esp as we heat up during the late morning and esp into
the afternoon. Expect scattered storms to remain generally sub-
severe due to the continued weak shear environment. However, with
generous instability and surface dew points near 70 at many
locations, would not be surprised to get an occasional stronger
pulse type storm that produces some brief hail or strong wind
gusts.

Will be left in a moist and unstable airmass Friday. Expect
additional, mainly heat of the day, sct shower/thunderstorms to
redevelop here and there, though many locations could go precip
free. Afternoon highs could creep up past 90 in some locations,
with heat indices up into the mid 90s.

Another cold front will approach from the north Friday
night/Saturday time frame. Not sure how active the boundary will
end up being as developing nw flow aloft tries to push it through
the forecast area either late Friday night (GFS) or during the day
Saturday (EC). Diurnal timing looks to mitigate storm chances at
this time. However, once the front doers clear the area, should
end up with somewhat drier air moving end toward the end of the
period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

The 12Z medium range models were in surprisingly good agreement with
the path of the remnants of Cristobal, though the 12Z ECMWF run
limited the eastward progression of the extra-tropical low a bit
compared to the 00Z run, based on greater strength of a strong mid
level ridge developing over the central CONUS.

From daybreak Sun through Mon morning, the PAH forecast area will be
under the influence of a sharp mid level ridge and high surface
pressure centered over the Great Lakes (prevailing easterly surface
winds). These dry conditions will likely be aided by subsidence
associated with Cristobal.

Later on Mon and Mon night, Cristobal`s remnants should be in the
general vicinity of AR, and begin to open into a wave. Some
cloudiness and possibly some shower and tstm activity may be seen
over the southwestern half of our region by then. The NBM suggested
that PoPs will ramp up for us on Tue as the remnants meet a mid
level shortwave moving out of the central Plains and are absorbed
into it by Tue night. Tstm activity will have a diurnal signal, and
currently has the highest forecast probability Tue afternoon and
evening. At this time, it appears this system will kick up a general
10-20 mph southeasterly breeze Tue, switching to the west Tue night.

The deterministic medium range models were rather persistent at this
time that there will be a reduction of cloud cover and a cessation
of pcpn in the wake of the wind shift early Wed. However, the
National Blend of Models had a number of wetter members suggesting
that pcpn could continue well into Wed depending on how the system
evolves. 7 days out, there is considerably more ensemble chaos, and
this forecaster won`t argue with a somewhat wetter solution.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Generally VFR conditions will dominate the 18z Wednesday WFO PAH
TAF issuance. The greatest uncertainty will be the impact of late
evening/early overnight thunderstorm activity on the KMVN, KEVV,
and KOWB TAF locations. Due to the small temporal window for the
development of thunderstorm activity in the aforementioned TAF
locations, did not address any change in wind direction/speed or
ceilings for thunderstorm development.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GM



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