Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 051022
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
622 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The unsettled weather pattern continues as several mid-level
disturbances ride a long a stalled frontal boundary through the
remainder of the workweek. A stronger feature will finally push
a stronger cold front through the region Saturday, with high
pressure building into the region through the early portion of
next week. Developing low pressure across the central U.S. looks
to bring more unsettled weather by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak low pressure was moving northeastward toward the Boston
area around 6:00 AM. A dissipating frontal boundary extended
southwestward to our region. Warm moist air riding over the low
level stable air to the northwest of the boundary resulted in
the development of an area of light rain in our region during
late the night hours. The light rain became more showery in
nature early this morning. Clouds lingered overhead. As the
atmosphere begins to mix, the cloud cover is expected to become
broken.

A mid level short wave trough is forecast to approach from the
west this afternoon. As the surface boundary lifts northward and
become diffuse, conditions in our region will become moderately
unstable. An axis of mixed layer CAPE values in the
neighborhood of 1000 to 1500 J/kg is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Interstate 95 Corridor in our region. As a
result, we are anticipating showers and thunderstorms to develop
during the afternoon. There is a marginal risk for strong wind
gusts and the potential for locally heavy rain. Precipitable
waters values should increase to around 2 inches.

A light and variable wind is forecast to become southwest
around 6 to 12 MPH. Today`s high temperatures will likely favor
the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The mid level short wave trough is forecast to pass overhead
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue in
advance of the feature. The axis of the short wave should pass
over our region around midnight, with a decrease in showers and
thunderstorms anticipated in its wake.

Lingering low level moisture should result in low clouds late
tonight along with the possibility of patchy fog.

The wind is forecast to become light and variable for tonight.
Conditions will remain humid with lows ranging mainly from 65 to
70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Finally some rest for the weary with a return to dry weather
heading into the extended forecast period as high pressure
finally builds into the region and pushes the jet to our north
and east by early next week. All eyes on Cristobal by midweek as
the system merges with the prevailing mid-lateral flow.

One more day of thunderstorms is in store Saturday as a cold
front pushes through the region. Guidance has begun to push this
front through much faster, yielding a diminished thunderstorm
potential into the afternoon. Main changes appear to tied to a
broader shortwave trough across the Great Lakes. This trough
will dig into the Mid- Atlantic, but amplification will be
delayed enough to prohibit stronger southerly flow ahead of the
cold front for our region. This looks to really cut down the
thunderstorm potential Saturday, with only scattered showers and
thunderstorms likely. Greatest potential will be across
Delaware and New Jersey where maximized daytime heating may be
reached with forecast CAPE values from 500 to 1000 J/kg.
Otherwise, a warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure builds into the region Sunday through Wednesday,
with a nice stretch of much-needed quiet weather and highs
gradually warming from the upper 70s Sunday to the low 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday. To our west, Cristobal will work
northward, amplifying a shortwave trough in the process. This
looks to stall the Rossby Wave pattern, enhancing the ridge over
the eastern U.S., which is leading to a warmer outlook for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

All good things must come to an end, however. This comes to
fruition as the surface low moves off to the north and east
after absorbing the remnants of Cristobal. To our east, an mid
and low level area of low pressure begins to deepen and looks to
push westward towards the East Coast by Thursday. This will
eventually interact with the approaching cold front Friday.
There is remarkable agreement amongst the GFS and EC at this
point with the retrograding low merging with the front over our
region in the Friday timeframe. There is the potential for heavy
rain with these features given the stalled pattern. Thankfully,
a nice period of dry weather before this will help soils
recover a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Variable (IFR/MVFR/VFR) conditions early this morning,
improving to VFR for this afternoon. Scattered showers are
expected for today, along with scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms may have gusty winds and
heavy rain. Southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Medium
confidence overall with low confidence in the timing of
precipitation.

Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before
04Z. Some of the thunderstorms may have gusty winds and heavy
rain. Generally MVFR and IFR conditions. Variable wind 6 knots
or less. Medium confidence overall with low confidence in the
timing of precipitation.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR conditions generally expected with southwesterly
winds turning northwesterly from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 20
knots at times. Showers and thunderstorms possible with higher
winds gusts and restrictions. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with
gusts to 15 knots. High confidence.

Monday...VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High
confidence. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with southwesterly winds turning southerly from 5
to 10 knots. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
A south to southwest wind mainly 10 to 15 knots is expected for
today and tonight. Wave heights on our ocean waters are
forecast to be 2 to 4 feet with waves on Delaware Bay at 2 feet
or less. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly for late
today into tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...Sub-advisory conditions expected to prevail through
the greater balance of the day with southwesterly winds from 10
to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. Showers and thunderstorms
possible with higher locally stronger wind gusts. Seas from 1 to
3 feet.

Sunday...Generally sub-SCA conditions expected with north to
northwesterly winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
in the morning. Seas from 1 to 3 feet.

Monday...Sub-SCA conditions expected with northerly winds
turning easterly and eventually southeasterly from 10 to 15
knots. Seas from 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected with southwesterly winds
turning southeasterly from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20
knots. Seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet.

Rip Currents...

We are expecting a moderate risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey shore for today. A
low risk is anticipated for the Delaware beaches. A medium
period southerly swell is forecast along with a southerly wind
around 15 to 20 MPH.

The southerly wind is forecast to decrease to around 10 MPH for
Saturday and the swell and breaking waves should diminish a
bit, as well. Therefore, a low risk is expected for both New
Jersey and Delaware on Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor tidal flooding occurred during the night. While
water levels will be elevated again around this evening`s high
tide, only spotty minor flooding is anticipated. As a result,
the need for another Coastal Flood Advisory seems unlikely.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Davis
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Davis
Aviation...Davis/Iovino
Marine...Davis/Iovino
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Iovino


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