Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 302127
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds this evening will diminish. Temperatures return to
around average Sunday and Monday then trend warmer through
Thursday with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
possible each afternoon and evening. A stronger storm system
approaching the west coast is expected to bring increased winds,
cooler temperatures and chances for showers by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Main change in the forecast was adding a slight chance of showers
and thunder Sunday evening for parts of eastern CA and far western
NV, and trending high temperatures a bit warmer from Tuesday
through Friday.

So far today, the gusty winds have been the primary weather
feature with areas of blowing dust for portions of west central
NV, as shown on satellite imagery and some of the I-80 web
cameras from Fernley eastward. In addition to parts of west
central NV, some strong gusts of 50-60 mph have also occurred in
far northwest NV and the Surprise Valley. Later this afternoon
Mineral County is likely to see a surge in wind speeds, especially
after the bands of mid-high level clouds exit to the east.

A final round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is projected
to develop late this afternoon and evening with the best chances
around the Tahoe basin and northern/western Lassen County,
although a few cells may also pop up in parts of west central NV
as the upper level trough axis swings through these areas.

For Sunday, a large area of high clouds is likely to limit
instability for much of the day. However, some upper level
dynamics in the form of a small jet streak, and steeper 700-500
mb lapse rates could produce some showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly from Tahoe-Alpine County northward to Reno-
Carson-Minden, mainly after 5 pm. Cells that develop are likely to
be fast movers with gusty winds the primary threat, along with a
few lightning strikes and brief rainfall.

From Monday-Wednesday, the weather pattern then stalls out as an
upper low spins off the southern CA coast while zonal flow
prevails over the northwest US. This leaves the eastern
Sierra/western NV in a weak flow pattern between these systems,
with a small deformation zone providing favorable lift for
shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening.
While most areas are unlikely to see much rainfall or thunder,
the best overall chances look to favor areas near the Sierra each
day, with isolated cells possible into parts of western NV mainly
on Monday. A gradual warming trend is also expected, with highs
near seasonal average Monday rising into the mid 80s-near 90 for
lower elevations and 70s for Sierra valleys by Wednesday.

Then by Thursday, as this low moves inland across southern CA and
weakens, the best chance for thunder shifts a bit to favor areas
south of US-50 in eastern CA-western NV. Given the lower
predictability of the track for ejecting closed lows, the area
where thunderstorms form could vary. Temperatures will remain
similar to Wednesday`s above average values.

By Friday-Saturday, the next weather system to approach the west
coast is looking to be deeper, with winds increasing both days as
the longwave trough reaches the west coast and temperatures
trending downward especially by Saturday. There are some timing
differences with how soon this trough kicks inland. Currently the
best precip chances are projected for northeast CA-northwest NV
starting Saturday, but some of the more progressive scenarios
could bring showers farther southward to the I-80 corridor. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty winds and turbulent conditions continue into early evening,
with wind gusts up to 35 kt at the western NV terminals southward
to KMMH and stronger gusts farther east along the US-95 corridor
where visibility in blowing dust could be reduced to 1-3 miles at
times.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also develop through
early evening mainly for with about a 20% chance for MVFR CIGS/VIS
and a few lightning strikes near KTVL/KTRK. Lesser chances for for
northeast CA and parts of west central NV.

For Sunday, less wind is expected along with VFR conditions during
the day. A few showers and thunderstorms may occur near the main
terminals (excluding KMMH) later in the day, mainly between
00-04Z, bringing brief rain showers, isolated lightning and
locally stronger wind gusts.

The potential for afternoon-evening thunder continues into much of
the upcoming week, especially near the Sierra. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions will continue through 8 PM this evening.
Winds have been gusting at 30-50 mph across much of western NV and
the eastern Sierra since this morning. These winds will decrease
this evening along with increasing humidity.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible into this evening with
best chances along the Sierra Crest from Plumas NF to Sonora
Pass. These storms may be strong enough to cross the Tahoe Basin
and into the Sierra Front and could produce heavy rain and/or
accumulating hail.

Next week will feature a warming trend, but not as hot as the
last few days. Expect some afternoon breezes with potential for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Crest &
Sierra Front Monday to Wednesday. Winds could get stronger late
in the week and next weekend as low pressure returns to the west
coast. Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-004.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ420.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening below 7000 feet in
     NVZ421.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Washoe Lake
     in NVZ003.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening below 7000 feet
     in CAZ274.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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