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000
FXUS61 KRLX 041834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled with storm chances lingering through Saturday prior to
a cold front passage. High pressure brings dry weather Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms begin to make their way into the
area, the main line of storms entering into the northwestern
part of the area. Scattered thunderstorms are also beginning to
pop up throughout the area as well. Some storms may be severe
with damaging winds and large hail for the primary threats.
There is currently a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for this
afternoon/evening for a few counties in southeast Ohio. Heavy
downpours associated with these storms may cause flooding/water
issues, particularly in the northern half of the area which
received precipitation last night from the slow moving cold
front that had moved through the area. Showers and thunderstorms
should dissipate tonight, likely leaving a small break before
precipitation, associated with a low pressure system moving into
the area from the west, begins again sometime Friday morning.
Forecast precipitation amounts with the first system should be
around 1/4 inches to 3/4 inches across the area, again, possibly
causing water issues, particularly where the ground is
saturated from previous rainfall.

Temperatures tonight should be around the mid 60s in the
lowlands and upper 50s to lower 60s in the mountains.
Friday`s temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s for the
lowlands and high 60s to high 70s in the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

The period remains active with as a nearly stationary frontal
boundary continues over the area serving as a focus of
convection through 03Z Saturday.

A broad high pressure system builds from the Great Lakes region
south across the OH Valley and WV early Saturday night. This feature
will push the remnants of the frontal boundary south as a cold
front away from the local area by Sunday morning. Very little
in term of rainfall accumulations can be expected.

This high pressure will provide with dry and warm to hot weather for
the rest of the weekend into the new week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Dry weather conditions persist Monday and Tuesday as the broad high
pressure takes control. Expect weak flow and plenty of sunshine to
raise afternoon temperatures into the well upper 80s. Could see
localized areas in the lowlands reaching the 90 degree mark once
again by Tuesday. Shower and storm return Wednesday with a frontal
passage across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the western side
of the region, affecting the more western/central sites, and
within the next few hours, likely affecting all sites. Showers
associated with these storms may begin to affect these sites
within the next few hours as well, with showers and possible
thunderstorms continuing through this evening. MVFR, and
possibly IFR, conditions may occur in heavy showers in
visibilities, and possibly in ceilings. Tonight there should be
a break in showers/thunderstorms, with precipitation starting
up again sometime Friday morning. Some sites may fog late
tonight/early Friday morning depending on when the precipitation
moves out and if skies clear enough. If so, MVFR or IFR
conditions may be possible in fog.

Southwesterly winds begin the period around 5-10KTs, some sites
gusting to around 15KTS. Winds should become relatively light
or calm tonight, picking up again during the day on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon TS coverage will likely vary from
TAF timing with short term amendments required. Fog may or may
not occur at sites late tonight/early Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...CG