


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
988 FXUS61 KRLX 151031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 631 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in place this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... Updated PoPs for the next couple of hours to reflect the location of a few persistent showers on radar this morning. As of 330 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Another day of scattered showers and storms is ahead. * Best precipitation chances will be this afternoon and evening. * Heavy rainfall could lead to localized instances of flooding. Locally dense fog has formed in the valleys and areas that received rain yesterday, thus an SPS has been issued for the entirety of the forecast area this morning. Fog will erode from the area shortly after sunrise. The forecast area will continue to reside within a warm, moist, and unstable environment while a stationary front remains sprawled across Ohio and northern West Virginia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are mainly expected to sprout up to the south of the front today, with greatest precipitation chances spanning southern and eastern portions of the CWA during the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will again be possible within storms which could again prompt some localized high water issues. Much of the area remains within a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today, though a slight risk does graze the northeast mountains. Precipitation coverage should once again lessen overnight. Areas of fog could also form, though confidence in extent is low and will depend on how much skies clear during the night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... Key Point: * Daily chances of rain, storms and localized flooding persist. Unsettled weather pattern persists through the middle of the week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms expected to peak each afternoon and evening. Soils should gradually become saturated by several consecutive days of locally heavy rain; therefore, marginal excessive rainfall risks cover the whole forecast area both Wednesday and Thursday. Heat and humidity could buoy apparent temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s in the lowlands Wednesday and Thursday afternoons; however, confidence on reaching advisory criteria is somewhat lessened by the potential for afternoon precipitation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... Key Point: * Remaining unsettled through the weekend and into next week. A front approaches from the northwest and then sinks down into the area late week into the weekend. There is some question as to how far south the front will make it before a low pressure system pulls it back to the north as a warm front. This system then drags another front towards the area as it decamps from the northeastern US early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... Flight conditions will gradually improve to VFR as fog erodes from the area this morning. Scattered showers and storms will then sprout up across the area, with best coverage expected to occur during the afternoon and evening hours. Brief CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in heavier rain. Activity should diminish overnight. Patches of fog could be possible tonight, though extent will depend on how much clearing occurs. Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period. Occasional gusts could occur in storms this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers/storms and fog tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/15/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...20 NEAR TERM...20 SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...20 AVIATION...20