Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 020639
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
239 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. A weak cold
front will drift into the region from the north Wednesday, then
linger or stall near the North Carolina...Virginia border through
midweek as strong high pressure builds across the Midwest. Dry and
mild conditions through Tuesday will give way to scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the later half of the week
along with increasingly warm and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure across the region this morning will move east this
afternoon into tonight. A weak cold front will approach the
Maryland/West Virginia border area tonight. The ridge aloft will
build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region today into tonight.

Clusters of convection across Ohio and Pennsylvania this morning
will move southeast and help to push the weak front a bit further
south. The convection this morning should weaken and dissipate
before reaching the I-64 corridor. Will allow for isolated sprinkles
across the north this morning.  Mid-level clouds from this
convection will move across northern portions of the forecast
area today, mainly this morning. The 850 mb temperatures will
warm toward +16C this afternoon. High temperatures this
afternoon will range from around 70 degrees in the mountains to
the mid 80s in the piedmont. Any ridge rider decaying convective
complex dropping south across the Upper Great Lakes will remain
north of us tonight into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures
tonight will vary from the upper 50s in the western mountains to
the upper 60s in the piedmont under clear to partly cloudy
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...

Quiet pattern comes to an end with increasing heat, humidity, and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday, weak frontal boundary to our north in the Ohio Valley
will be the focus for thunderstorms development during the afternoon
hours. This will push south through the day Wednesday, but will not
quite make it into the CWA. This will keep coverage of showers and
thunderstorms to a minimum. Some showers could make it as far south
as the I-64 corridor overnight Wednesday, but these will be
isolated.

Thursday appears to be the first day for widespread convection this
week as the frontal boundary sags into the heart of the CWA.
Increasing daytime temperatures and increasing instability will
allow for numerous shower/thunderstorm development by the afternoon
hours. These could linger well into the evening hours, but overall
the trend in coverage should wane after sunset. A few storms could
be strong with strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Friday will likely be a repeat of Thursday. Stalled/washed out
frontal boundary draped across the CWA will once again be the focus
for numerous afternoon shower/thunderstorm development.

Temperatures for this period will be above normal. Wednesday will be
the warmest day of the week with many areas east of the Blue Ridge
likely to eclipse the 90 degree mark as a warm airmass settles in
overhead. Thursday and Friday looking to not be quite as warm thanks
to residual cloud cover and expected showers/thunderstorms, but
widespread mid to upper 80s still look likely. Overnight lows will
remain rather mild in the 60s through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Weather conditions become more unsettled and problematic during
this period as the aforementioned frontal boundary continues to
sag southward from daily convective trends. Friday will start
with left over outflow boundaries and the frontal system likely
lingering near the NC/VA border. Ridging aloft will remain to
our west. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected again Friday with perhaps a bit more emphasis on the
central and southern areas of the CWA versus the northern areas
on Thursday. Widespread heavy rainfall and severe potential is
not expected due to an overall summertime pattern, but
localized flooding and isolated strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out mainly during the afternoon and evening period. The
front will continue to linger across the region into the weekend
as the models differ on how far south it will drift before
dissipating and if/when the upper ridge will make a better move
to the east. There are also signs of potential Gulf moisture
working northward into the area by the weekend, which could
result in increasing rainfall amounts. Bottomline, the weekend
looks warm, humid, and unsettled.

The increase in cloud cover and humidity levels will result in
decreasing temperatures, but still remaining quite warm and
humid with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows mostly muggy 60s to
near 70 in the Piedmont.

Another concern that will need to be watched carefully as we
move toward the weekend is a tropical system emanating from the
western Gulf. The extended range models are all over the place
with respect to the location where this will move inland and
where it goes after that. The ECMWF has been the most consistent
from day-to-day, tracking this system eventually through LA/AR
and then turning it northeast into the TN Valley. If so, this
could have an additional impact on rainfall and convection in
our area by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

Good flying conditions expected today. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF valid period. There will be periods of
mid to high clouds today.

Winds will be light and variable this morning, then becoming
southwest this afternoon with speeds 8-12kts with gusts to
around 20 kts.

High confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.


Extended Aviation Discussion...

By Wednesday, high pressure building aloft to our west will
result in an unstable northwest flow developing across the Mid-
Atlantic region. With a hot air mass pushing northward into the
central U.S., this opens the door for a scattered thunderstorms
to move southeast into the region, but coverage is expected to
be limited. The increase in humidity will result in an
increasing probability for morning low clouds and fog, but no
widespread sub-VFR conditions are expected. Any storms that do
develop will occur during the late day/evening hours and patchy
areas of fog are possible during the 08Z- 14Z time frame,
especially at locations such as LWB and BCB. Coverage of sub-
VFR convection will increase Thursday and Friday and a weak
front drifts into the region from the north and the upper ridge
begins to weak allowing the westerlies to sag a bit further
south.. Outside of storms, winds will generally be southwest
during the daytime around 10 mph.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/PC



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