Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261015
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
615 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Wednesday] Deep moisture will increase across the area
today with ceilings expected mainly in the MVFR range. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also expected to become more numerous
this afternoon and then diminish overnight. Ceilings are expected
to lower into the IFR range tonight for DHN, ABY, and VLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [255 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

An additional increase in deep moisture is expected today with
precipitable water values rising to near 2 inches this afternoon.
Given this tropical airmass and a weak trough in the area in
conjunction with daytime heating, a fairly high coverage of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected with PoPs around 60%
for a large portion of the day. Storms will be heavy rain producers
in small pockets given the tropical airmass. A gradual diminishing
trend is expected after sunset. Afternoon highs will generally be in
the 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the
northwest areas to lower 70s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels, a closed low will be over TX/OK/AR and a ridge
will be over the Northeast U.S. At the surface, a weak pressure
gradient will be in place with southerly low level flow. POPs will
be elevated with deep layer moisture advection in the lower, mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere. POPs will be 30 to 50 percent
tomorrow and 60 to 70 percent on Thursday. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible tomorrow. Increased cloud cover may help
squash instability and keep chances for severe storms lower than a
typical summer day on Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s and near
90. Lows will be near 70.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the Southeast U.S. A
ridge will build into the Central U.S. this weekend. At the surface,
a weak pressure gradient will be in place with southerly low level
flow. A weak cold front may move through Saturday night or Sunday.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday and
Saturday afternoons. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Lows will be near 70.


.MARINE...

Easterly winds will decrease this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect this morning. Tonight light winds will become southerly
and remain so through the workweek. A wet pattern will be in place
this week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are mostly steady. A wet pattern will be in place this
week with 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches of rain expected over the next
seven days. Isolated higher totals are likely with stronger storms.
There are no flooding concerns at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  68  90  70  87 /  60  40  40  20  60
Panama City   83  71  86  73  84 /  60  40  30  40  70
Dothan        80  67  86  69  83 /  60  50  50  30  70
Albany        81  68  87  71  86 /  60  50  50  20  70
Valdosta      80  68  88  70  89 /  60  50  50  10  60
Cross City    83  69  89  70  90 /  50  30  30  10  50
Apalachicola  81  72  84  73  83 /  50  30  20  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Franklin-
     South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD



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